Re: Pocket 99\'s on CO.....correct line? What to bet on turn?
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especially against a villan whose stats are telling me hes a showdown monkey.
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Why let him get there for free then?
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Because he usually won't get there at all. Overcards, villain's most likely holding, usually do not improve, but will often bluff after the turn check. But, if you bet to give overcards bad odds, the bet will likely not be for value as you will be called by hands you beat, but you will force out hands that had low odds of improving anyway.
Stack sizes work against you because if you make a decent bet on the turn and get raised there or get lead into on the river, you will have a tough decision because you will certainly be behind, but getting 4:1 or so. If you just shoved the turn however, you will definitely get called only by better hands.
You crossed the commitment threshold on the flop. That is, in theory, you should not have put in so much money on the flop, compared to the effective stacks, without having a plan. Your flop action is best geared toward keeping the turn cheap, so take it. Otherwise, you should have raised more on the flop so that you could call a check raise comfortably, or just called the flop bet so you could raise the turn.
So, check behind and call the river bet.
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