[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
On hand 2, no one has suggested my line, yet, but both Rob and Josh have alluded to it. In Rob's analysis, he talks about people making calls on the river if they hit a pair because they now beat AK. WTF, Rob!? Who the heck bets the flop, c/c's the turn, and then bets the river with AK!? On the contrary, I think that's a great bluff line here, because you will get people to even fold a T to you! And if you hit an ace or a Q, you can vb against a J! His range is pretty polarized here since I think he'd raise a flop bet with a strong hand on a two broadway board. So he either has a J or a T or a bluff like 95% of the time. So check/call, bet river can get him off a marginal made hand and gets the most from a J if you hit, and balances out your play with overpairs, since that's the line I'd take with AA, too, here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Real good post, dov. I wanted to single this out specifically. (and then I realized I wanted to comment on everything)

The reason why I'm not concerned about bluffing the river is I believe if we bluff, alot of the times they fold we had them anyway (ala the float, as in 67 78 etc). I strongly believe alot of people w/ that type will peel the flop wide, such as guts, floats, mid pair, but they're also exercise pot control in order to facilitate showdown mode. Thus, when they DO bet the turn, it's a check call given the parlay of implied odds "are there" (on a river c/r, given two pair+ bet/call a king river) and ace high is good vs most floats. Or, put another way, I believe very few people are betting with a 10 and "not putting more money in," in fact, a weak jack will often check behind and call or bet the river themselves. I left that out of my assumptions, but I wanted to encourage the fact that their range is so polarized. That's another small reason I like checking more then 2nd barreling, too, as in the card is a blank so if villain was ahead on the flop they're still head on the turn, so I think alot of these marginal hands (which we are a dog to) dont simply go away there but hang around - and we're not pushing an equity advantage.

also, I think that c-c bet river if you improve (on a Q or A) is not good given people CAN fold a pair (if they have, say QJ and the ace falls) given that card hits AT, KQ, AK, AQ, etc -> so, if we bet, I think we lose the value from inducing bluffs, but obviously if we both improve (as in AQ vs QJ and a queen falls) we get called. (and that number v close to what w'd check call)

The reason c-c on a good card > blank (where we have ace high) is another float shell, missed draw (like ace lands they have 89, vs a 9 lands and they still think they're bluffing) is because when we get to the river, I'd classify AQ high as a bad bluffcatcher since we dont beat all bluffs. I'd classify an improved AQ (to top pair) as a decent value bet, and therefore, a terrific bluffcatcher. But yeah, I think there is merit to leading out on an ace or queen, too, just remember the reason for the turn c/c was bc they're fos (combinatorics aside) more then half the time, so you want to allow them to bet again. (obv, if you dont improve, they wont always fre away, and sometimes you win w/ ace high, which is one of those factors which swung it into a turn c/c)

[ QUOTE ]
On hand 3, pushing is god awful. He calls you with NFD and you lose to ace high on the river. Congrats! But calling looks like AA/AK. So if he bets the river, you can fold (I'd even fold AA!) but if he checks, you can 'value bet' and get him off a marginal pair (or ace high). And if you hit, your hand is disguised because you raised preflop so you can easily stack a set!

[/ QUOTE ]
Going to add I think this is a better plan, bc stacks are 1 PSB or so on the river, and alot of the value for us calling the turn is if he has a good hand most people simply will shove the river, so when we have the nuts we can slowroll and call. (Well, not slowroll) but when he checks, his hand reverts to the bluffcatcher (MAINLY) zone of say 99-JJ, and he may fold to a bluff. (So a shove w/o the goods may be +EV). Interestingly here we suppose a call of a push gets called ~70% (number may be less then that but for sake of argument that's how i presented the argument) but on the river once they check, given we called the turn, a call of the push will be called alot less since we have more information to work with. say, 30% or so. which means a bluff may provide slight +EV, further increasing our earn from a turn call.

[ QUOTE ]

Also, in the AQ hand, i'd call a reraise and c/r all-in on most flops. Don't mess with me TAG/LAG button!

[/ QUOTE ]
haha i think thats not bad, id do the same, except switch around most to some. my frequency for AQ high moves are much less then yours.

[ QUOTE ]
n hand 1, Rob wants to call for implied odds, Josh wants to fold because he's afraid of hitting and losing (although if he thinks sets are a big part of villain's range, he could just fold a pairing river flush and then he'd still be able to stack villain on non-pairing flushes since no one ever folds a set - but whatever) and I want to call because I think that our hand might be good and if it isn't a K or a T might make it good!

[/ QUOTE ]
I did make a mention that a king or ten may be live, but it's a very small parlay (showing down the best hand or hitting a king or ten and showing down the best hand) however, this does change our hand value, bc that small edge makes say 89c (which has neither as often) a fold but KTc a call.