Re: Patriots Game
Hello all...
I realllllly should be studying for a quiz at 2 pm right now but I am actually eager to share my side of this story.
Not that anyone at 2+2 would know me, but yes, I am the friend that placed this bet with stealthmunk.
Here's a little background: I'm 20 years old, as stealthmunk said my roll is ~50k, and while I certainly am not a sharp, I'm far from a square (cough cough). I read the Sports Betting forums here, I follow lines/betting trends, and I would never say something as square-ish as "I don't care what the odds say." Generally I'm willing to book large bets on ANY team in any sport if the price I'm getting is significantly better than what Pinny/Tradesports are offering.
I was driving back to school last night and was supposed to drop by stealthmunk's place to give him $2k in cash that I owed him, which was like a 10 mile detour. So when I got to his apartment I treated myself to some of his alcohol and I asked him to put the Pats game on. It's not as if I put the game on with the intention of "hustling" him on some bet... but we quickly got to chatting about the Pats being the biggest favorites since 1980 yadda yadda and then stealthmunk goes, "I'll bet you ONE HUNDRED to one the Patriots cover."
All of a sudden I got excited since at that point the Eagles were driving, down 14-7, in the 2nd quarter, and stealthmunk is a massive degen who would actually bet his whole roll on something like this. I was probably being a massive tellbox at this point with my overeagerness to take this bet, but you'll have to forgive me since I felt that if I put down $1k vs $100k that I'd be making like $5k in Sklansky bucks.
Call ME a square, but I figured that since the Eagles came INTO the game as like 25.5 pt dogs and +2800 on the ML, that they were actually running above expectation at this point in the 2nd quarter. If we assume the fair line on the game is 25.5 pts, then one would expect the Pats to be up 10 or so at this point. So I figured fair ML was like +2000 at this point in the game. We talked it down to 35-1 and booked it.
Fast forward to early 4th quarter... OMG EAGLES UP 28-24 AND DRIVING. stealthmunk and I have been discussing buyouts the entire 2nd half but he keeps giving me insulting offers like $350 to cut the stakes of the bet in half. Finally I tell him that if the Eagles go 3 and out on the current drive I'll take a $9500 buyout. He offers $7k and now we're talking. At this point I'm under the impression that the broken La-Z-Boy I'm sitting in is worth $2500 new, so I value it at around $1k. We eventually agree on $7600 and the chair.
Of course I go on life tilt when I see that Tradesports has the Pats at like 59 buy 66 sell but keep in mind I had like 30 seconds to decide and I wasn't allowed to go on the Internet. I should have snuck to the bathroom and pulled up Tradesports on my Iphone but I was a little too drunk to realize this was an option. Again, call me a square but my logic was that the Pats would have the ball, down 4, with like 12 minutes left. I certainly didn't take the buyout to try to reduce variance... I'm not dumb enough to place a bet in the first place if the stakes are so high that I'll be forced to take a -EV hedge. But anyways... figure this is an NBA game. If the 1996 Bulls are at home facing some .500 team down 1 possession early 4th quarter, wouldn't they be 75% or so to win? Yeah I know basketball football yadda yadda but again I had like 30 seconds and was drunk. I honestly thought neither of us was getting the best of this buyout but w/e... ship the $5k (I think) that I was up on the night.
Yeah I know tl;dr DEAL WITH IT BATCHES no cliffnotes here.
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