[a nonymous]

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I'd say there is less than a 1 in a 1000 chance of him paying you, even if he sees this and is "embarrassed or something."

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i.e. posting is +EV. fwiw the odds are probably 1 in 10,000

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It took you time and energy to post.

Let's spend some more time/energy to figure out the actual EV, using your 1 in 10,000 figure.