[lastchance]

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Villagers have certain tendencies. They talk with certain people, they argue with certain people. When they are right, they're right in a certain way. For example, 90% of the time, almost no one is going to clear me as a villager except Dustin/Shortline. You can use this type of knowledge, and it can be very, very effective. Ask yourself, "is what that villager saying make sense?" And by make sense, it's not whether or not you agree with it, or even whether or not it's right. By make sense, I mean, whether or not that villager SHOULD be posting what he's posting.

For example, fish would never clear me, dustin, and bojtun in ASXVII if he was a villager. I agreed with it, it was right, but it didn't make sense coming from fish (and I didn't push it hard enough at the time). Eskimo suspecting me on d5 was completely moranic (and wrong), but it was definitely a very, very natural thing for eskimo to do.

Some villagers think alike. They should post the same way. They should clear each other. They should think the same things. Some villagers think differently. They should argue. They should not think the same way. Same with wolves.

Example: Both boj and supine said they wanted to lynch me the day clowntable got lynched in ASXVII. If boj and supine thought about the game completely differently, one of them is probably a wolf. But they didn't, and they weren't.

This is very, very player-specific and game specific. Shorty should think differently than Books. ScottHoward should attack Eskimo (something I completely missed in ASXVII). I should talk to Shortline a lot. Dustin and Bojtun should clear each other. Gt1t should argue with durron.

Figure out who attacks who, who argues with who, who agrees with who, who talks with who, who gets frustrated at who. The same interactions will pop up every game. A difference or lack of interaction is essentially a sign pointing to wolves. Start with yourself, think about who you interact with, and branch out.

Do not try to "make sense" of what people would do as wolf. Wolves metagame. Wolves will play differently based on who their wolf partners are. Also, if you figure out what people don't do as a wolf, you clear villagers (which is fine). If you figure out what people don't do as a villager, you lynch wolves (awesome).

Not only can you use a wolf's reads that don't "make sense" to accuse a wolf, you can use the opposite. If Player X is a villager, and always accuses player Y of being a wolf but doesn't this game, well, you should not only suspect player X, but suspect player Y.

Villagers are predictable. From game to game, the differences in their play are mostly about the game itself, not the villager. Understand how other villagers think and should think, and nailing wolves becomes a lot, lot easier.

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I edited down that huge page in the middle about tendencies.