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Old 12-11-2006, 05:35 PM
Scorpion Man Scorpion Man is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Bay Area, CA
Posts: 615
Default Re: AINV closed end fund?

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I have owned it since $15. Its a good environment for them right now. It would be ugly in a worsening credit environment. Its an OK idea for a conservative portfolio.

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I don't know anything specifically about AINV, but as far as junk bonds go:

a) junk bond default rates are at historical lows and

b) the spread between junk bonds and treasuries are at historical lows

Junk bond investors are currently being paid approximately 3% risk premium over treasuries to invest in the bonds of distressed companies when historically they have received more than that. At this point, I think its more likely that credit defaults go up than down and that the spread between junk and treasuries goes up than down.

In short, I think there is good reason to be bearish on junk bonds, especially in a tightening credit environment and slowing economy.

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I actually agree with everything you say. The main reason I am holding AINV is becasue I am earning yield on $ that will go to the tax man if I sell it because my capital gain is a significant %. I would not put fresh money in it, but its not horrible either. I meant what I said before...its a good environment right now. I would be gone at the first sign of credit issues in the larger economy.
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