View Single Post
  #30  
Old 12-01-2007, 07:58 PM
wacki wacki is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: reading 1K climate journals
Posts: 10,708
Default Re: Of Climate Models and Hurricane Predictions

[ QUOTE ]
Why don't you actually the arguments I'm making instead of ones you'd like to address. You're better than that wacki, I know you are.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought I had. We are obviously having communication problems.

[ QUOTE ]
The second argument I'm making is that climate models will improve significantly over time and will evolve.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course

[ QUOTE ]
In expect that we can't imagine the improvement that will take place over the next 50 years.

[/ QUOTE ]

The IPCC has a chart of what areas are well understood and what aren't. A lot of papers have been written about what is theoretically possible with the climate models. Will there be unexpected surprises? Of course. But I'm willing to bet we have a good idea what direction the improvements will go.

[ QUOTE ]
Third argument is that people are putting way too much stock in what climate models in their current state are predicting.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no way of measuring public confidence. All I can say is that it would be foolish to claim the globe isn't going to warm in the future. The only debate is how much. As for the climate models well I'm of the opinion that Hansen's models have been a stunning success predicting the last 20 years in advance and recreating the past 200.

evidence:
http://tinyurl.com/y3hmrz

Will their accuracy continue? Not without improvements in computing power as well as the removal of political sabotage of scientific satellites (e.g. DSCOVR). However, the error bars of the last 20 years are representative of the models then the error bars could be increased by an order of magnitude and catastrophe could still easily and accurately predicted.

[ QUOTE ]
Fourth argment is that politicians are exploiting the situation to promote their own agendas.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've said this many times about BOTH sides.

[ QUOTE ]
Fifth argument is that the conditions for 3 and 4 are a disaster for funding research.

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends on the research. I personally don't think we need anymore climate research to do what needs to be done. Many climatologists are saying the same thing.

I hope that answers your questions. I didn't realize I was avoiding you. Next time question marks would certainly help let me know you are asking me to confirm or deny something.
Reply With Quote