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Old 01-05-2006, 07:58 AM
WarDekar WarDekar is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 2,410
Default Re: Would this have been a profitable middle?

Without much analysis, I'd have to say this is a pretty awful middle. Just to make the math easier let's say both were -135.

X% of the time you will win both for +200
(100-X)% of the time you will win one, lose one for -35

So you need to hit the middle roughly 15% of the time to make it break-even. I don't have any real data on this, but I don't think this is even close to be honest with you, maybe someone else will have a better answer but I think you should be glad you didn't take it (clearly, since it lost).
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