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Old 12-01-2007, 07:22 AM
punter11235 punter11235 is offline
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Default Re: writing an article, want to double check math

I plugged those settings into the simulation and here is what I got :

Overpair or set : 34.4%
Any pair : 54.1%

If our plan is to raise to say 450$ and fold to allin the EV of the play is :
a)if he push overpairs/set folds low pairs : +130$ for us (where 0$ is EV of folding to cbet)
b)if he push any pair : -43$ for us
c)if he push overpairs/set and AK (better strategy than pushing low pairs as AK has better equity vs our potential allin range than say 99) : -101$ for us.
d)if we just push and he calls with overpairs and sets our EV is +22$. Marginally better than folding.

Conclusion : Playing back is good if he is straightforward and only plays overpairs and sets against our raise.

I wrote similair article here I think you may be interested in it.
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