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U.S. has a 95% chance of hitting a recession within the next two quarters IMO. Bond markets are doing a much better job of pricing this in than the equity markets.
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define recession.
Barron
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The National Bureau of Economic Research is accepted as the official government determination of when a recession occurs. It is normally (but not always) two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. They do take other factors into consideration.
Recessions
Jimbo
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The interesting thing about recessions is that we don't know about them until after they have happened because it takes a while to gather GDP data.
Another interesting thing about recessions is that the media periodically polls the public, "Do you think we're in a recession?"
Recessions are pretty cut and dried and are not the result of a popular vote.