[calmB4storm]

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For example, our effective stack is 20BBs. The initial raiser uses the 28.8% range for stealing and opens up 3BBs. If our previous play with the player makes us think he'll call with teh 19.8% range earlier, it's +ev to push 55+, A8s+, KJs+, A9o+, KJo+ (yes, I've done the math on all of these things).

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It all became a math equation since it became a one-street game.

let's put it all in terms of blinds

it works out to something like this:
f(R+1.5) + c(w((E+1.5)-1/20(2E+1.5))-l(E)) > 0
where
f = % of time initial raiser folds to push
c = % of time initial raiser calls push
R = Open raise size of initial raiser
w = win % of pushing hand v initial raiser's calling range
l = loss % of pushing hand v initial raiser's calling range

the solution is to simplify for w and find out what win pct your hand needs verse a villain calling range.


w > ( (c-1)(R+1.5)/c + E) / (19E/10 +57/40)

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Can someone show me how this math works out?

Using the numbers from MT2R's example, this is what I got...

c = .198/.288 = .6875
R = 3
E = 20

Therefore w > (.6875-1)*(3.5+1)/.6875 + 20)/(1.9*20+1.425)
And after simplifying I get w > 45.54%

That doesn't match up with MT2R's range of 55+, A8s+, KJs+, A9o+, KJo+, which corresponds to a win % of over 55%.

Anyone see where I'm going wrong?

Thanks!