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Old 11-30-2007, 06:30 PM
Sherman Sherman is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Ph. D. School
Posts: 3,999
Default Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***

Forgive me, but this makes no sense to me.

The probabilities ought to be additive.

That is, if his chance of winning a single 180-person MTT is 1/180, he chances of winning 1 of 2 180-person MTTs ought to be 2/180. And so forth. So his probability of winning 1 180 person tournament given 90 tournaments ought to be exactly 90/180 or 50%. Please explain how I am wrong.

Sherman

PS - FWIW, I know what you were doing by using his current data, I am just pointing out that unless he is a losing player (which he probably isn't) or is trying to lose, his probability of winning a single 180 tournament is surely better than 1 out of 200+.
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