Re: Have I Discovered Another Mathematical Football Coaching Error?
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I think I have, but it depends on some parameters. So before I reveal it I want to ask some preliminary questions. Please don't answer it before thinking about it a little because I won't let you wiggle out if you try to claim my conclusions are wrong when I base it on your own numbers.
1. Two good equally matched football teams. Two and a half minutes to go in the game. The team losing by 5 is on their own 20 and has two time outs left. About how often will they score a touchdown?
2. Same situation but they are down by one point. About how often will they score a field goal (assuming they have a good field goal kicker.)
3. Same as above. Down by one. About how often will they surprisingly score an unneeded touchdown?
I realize that the answers depend on a lot of unstated things but you can still give me a ballpark average, which should be good enough.
EXTRA CREDIT
Tell me what I am driving at.
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Are you talking NFL or college? Two-minute drill-type scores come more quickly in college, even without the two-minute warning, because of the clock stopping on first downs. I'm pretty sure there'd be a different set of correct responses to your questions if we are talking college instead of NFL.
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