Re: probability of n ties in a race to three (roshambo)
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thanks, sometimes I think phzon forgets that he isn't talking to grad students. Is there an easy way to see this? Link to derivation...
phzon...when you look at problems like this are you like "duh.... so obviously geometric distribution, and so obvious that it is equally like to end in two decisive throws as three."
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You can think of this sort of question in terms of transitions. On a throw-by-throw level, each result (p1 wins, p2 wins, tie) has a chance of 1/3 of occuring, so you could work it out like a 3-dimensional pascal's triangle.
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