Re: 56s in BB reraised pot
Good point about the sets, but I don't think most players raise over limpers from the BB with 22 and 33. I think he most likely checks with those hands.
Let's do the math here, shall we? I'm gonna tentatively set BB's range here at AT+, 99+. That's 99 combinations. If he calls a shove with AT, TT+, he's calling with 39 combinations. That means that in this scenario, he's calling you 39.39% of the time. When called, we will win the pot 17.89% of the time.
When called:
.1789(60.7) - .8211(48.2) = -28.73
When he folds, you gain 12.5
.6061(12.5) - .3939(28.73)
Shove EV = -$3.74
Edit: Oh, you recanted on the whole "shove" thing, so I guess this post was pretty pointless. I'll just leave my (probably bad) math up here for posterity, then.
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