[djj6835]

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God this is the most retarded [censored] argument, and it shows up in this forum almost every single day. The point, as always is that the mean of all samples is the true mean. Yes, you only have 40 hands. Yes, it's a relatively small sample - but if you take all the 40 hand samples you have of players where they run 45/33, the vast majority of those players would be much closer to 45/33 in reality than they would be to 23/20, for example.

Put another way. If you play a 23/20 game, for example - and take 100 random 40 hand samples of your play. The average of all those samples is going to be extremely close to 23/20. Similarly, the vast majority of those samples will be relatively close to 23/20. You'll probably have a 15/12 here, and a 50/40 there - but they will be rare outliers - rather uncommon. Especially when sampling something like VPIP which converges very quickly.

There is no perfect information. You have a sample that is more likely to be close to reality than not. You can choose to ignore if you want. But it is not invalid by any means.


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Regardless, none of this says anything about villain's cold 4 bet range. Honestly you rarely see this and I think getting it in with JJ in this spot against an unknown making a cold 4 bet is pretty bad imo. There are players that run at about 30/24 who rarely 3 bet and players that run at 17/15 who 3 bet 10% of the time they have the oppurtunity.