Re: Turning a -EV draw into a +EV lead (micro theory)
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Since no one has yet, I'd like to at least mention pot size, since it should be a consideration. Here it is small. So by virtue of that alone, I almost always check and fold and look for other opportuities.
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Actually, that's precisely what makes OP (and others) think that a value-semi-bluff is sometimes appropriate. People are FAR less likely to call you when the pot is small. So, since you're investing one small bet to potentially win 2.5, you only need it to work about 28.5% of the time for it to be profitable.
That said, I stand by my original claim that it really depends on the villain (and your table image, too, for that matter). Sometimes this is +EV move, sometimes not.
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