[Vyse]

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I also wonder how Young gets anointed as a complete risky player with all this downside when Garza is clearly the riskier player? What if Garza is the next Brazelton or Hamilton?

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Dude, what are you talking about? Once a pitcher demonstrates an ability to rape AA and AAA he's not NEARLY as risky as before. Garza is great in the stat that most accurately reflects future viability for a pitcher: HR/9. And he has a strong K rate. Those are arguably the two most important stats for a prospect, and Garza is well above average in both.

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The point is, he's more likely to not be valuable than Young is, if for no other reason than because he's a pitcher.

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This is just incredibly wrong, you're really overrating the whole TINSTAAPP crap.

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On top of that, I forgot all about Niemann! Damn the Rays are deep in young pitching.

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No, they were deep on high-upside, very risky young pitching. Like Jackson and Niemann. They were very low on reltively sure bets for young pitchers. Like Shields and Garza. They have so much hitting, they already had to trade some of their OFs, but rather than selling low low low on Baldelli and Gomes or even Crawford, they sold high on an overrated player.

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It seems like I'm usually the one defending the spenders! Is this the time for the Rays? Hell no! They just improved their 2008 projected wins from 76 to 78. It's not worth giving up future value for that, and they did, even though it's "riskier".

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They gained a lot of future value, lol.


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I think this is where we have the disconnect. Who is going to start in RF and at DH for the Rays in 2008 and 2009?

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Elijah Dukes is 23 and has way better plate discipline and just as much power, and higher upside than Young. Seriously, if you want to talk about tools and only tools and so conveniently ignore how horrible Young's performance has been for a so-called top prospect (uh how many top prospects have such horrible lines in the minors and majors over the last couple of years?), Dukes >>>> Young obv. Desmond Jennings is one of the best CF prospects in the game (ranked higher than Ellsbury on Goldstein's midseason list) and would be on track for a debut in 09 if he keeps it up.

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Baldelli? Don't forget a ton of his value was tied up in the fact that he was a good fielding speedy CF. If he can't stay healthy in RF, how good of a DH will he be? Dukes? Well, I like the upside, but do you really want to count on this guy?

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They only need one of three to build value, then trades all day long or just be fine with a league average RF.

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which the Rays are, even if it's for 2009.

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So why in the world are you acting like it's a problem at ALL, like the Rays need a RF in the next year? They don't. And even if every option fails, they have a ton of trade options because they have so many good young players. Wow, put Upton in RF and Jennings in CF. So hard.

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You know what this reminds me of? It reminds me of when Alfonso Soriano was traded for Brad Wilkerson. SE was like "Huge win for the Rangers," and I said, "Have you lost your mind? Soriano has tools baby!" Then SE said, "Yeah, but even if Soriano is a little better than Wilkerson, the Rangers got Sledge too," and I said, "huh?"

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Dude, if this was your logic for how the Nats won, LMFAO. That doesn't make you right; you were right for the wrong reason[s]. The Rangers destroyed that trade in any objective measurement at the time, no need to play revisionist history.

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Question. What translates into major league superstardom? Is it tools?

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Usually great production at a young age. Young's clock is ticking.

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Is it guys that hold their own at age 21 in MLB?

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Usually that's a decent indicator, but not when said player has shown dramatic regression in the process. He's usually not becoming a star.

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Is it minor league track record?

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Sustained minor league track record, yes.

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Because Delmon has all of this in his favor.

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Maybe two years ago. Not now.

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Overrated compared to who? If anything, Young is underrated and Garza is overrated.

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Young's trade value is obv Garza. He is viewed by many sources as one of the best prospects in baseball. He is not. Hence, overrated.