Re: 400NL: Over pair, ugly flop, semi-deep.
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What are MPs stats? That will affect the villains range that he sees the flop with.
Against a range of JJ-88 QhQd is a slight favorite.
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If he's calling all of those he's calling 77.
And he's not playing JJ and 99 the same way all the time, either. I would not expect a minraise with such hands as that nearly as often as he's minraising a set.
Given all this there's still a chance the pot is too big.
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