[rwperu34]

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The longer he stagnates the less likely it is he'll achieve his upside.

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He's 22 in 2008.

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He's been the same hitter for two years. Why didn't he improve this year? He was a year older this year than last? He has had the physical gifts of a player in his mid-twenties since he was twenty years old, he doesn't need to grow any more. He needs to learn how to make adjustments, i.e. hit at a major league level.

I'm not saying he won't figure it out. But usually great players don't take three years to do it. So you have to put his upside more on the level of a good, not great, player.

Manny Ramirez had an OPS of .997 in AA and 1.114 in AAA as a 21 year old.

Albert Pujols had a 1.000 OPS in the MAJORS at age 21.

Miquel Cabrera had an OPS of .878 in the MLB at age 21 in a full season in a tougher hitting park and league (130 OPS+).

At age 22, JD Drew's OPS was 1.021 split between AA and AAA.

Delmon Young hasn't sniffed these numbers at any serious level of competition. His "tools" haven't translated into "production".

Justin Upton had a .960 OPS split between A and AA at age 19. His MLB stats for his age 19 year aren't much worse than Delmon Youngs age 21 year. Justin is a stud prospect because he's improved tremendously in just one year while being forced up three rungs of competition. Delmon is an uncertain prospect because he's not improving.

You mentioned that PECOTA thinks Delmon Young will increase his OPS 28 pts, to .742 at age 22, which would still leave him one of the worst hitting corner outfielders in the MLB. If he has a season like that it will count as three years of the same lousy results, and won't give a lot of hope he'll ever be much more than an fourth outfielder or run of the mill starter.

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Funny you brought all that up, because I want to put Delmon's youth into perspective.

Delmon was 21 years old for 2007 and had 642 AB. There were two others that had 300+, Billy Butler and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. There were two players in AAA that managed 300+ AB, Adam Jones and Daric Barton. FWIW, what Delmon did in the show in 2007 was on par with what Adam Jones did repeating AAA. There were a measly 13 players in AA that had over 300 PA at age 21 or younger, and not suprisingly, those are some of the best prospects in the game.

Heading into 2007, PECOTA projected 21 players with an eqOPS of .900 or more. It's safe to assume that these were 21 of the very best hitters in the game. This is where they were at age 21;

Jason Bay-Hit 2 HR in 135 AB in low A with a 17% K rate.

Carlos Beltran-Started the year in low A, finished in the show. Had his major league breakout at age 22 with an OPS of 99 (Young's was 91 in 2007, despite being a year younger)

Lance Berkman-Spanking bombs at Rice University. He wouldn't even sniff the majors until his age 23 season. His OPS+ over his first 446 MLB AB was a full 30 pts lower than his career avg through 2007.

Barry Bonds-Started the year in AAA and put up a decent showing in his big league debut. He's obviously a special case, but his OPS+ was 70 pts higher during his first peak and 150 pts higher during his second peak. Tools made good.

Miguel Cabrera-In his second season in the show, basically a major league super star. It should still be noted that he added 20 points of OPS+ from his age 21 season to his peak.

Carlos Delgado-Perfoming well in AA. He wouldn't get a full time gig in the show until he was 24, and even then he was 27 pts OPS+ better for his career and 40+ OPS+ pts better in his peak.

Adam Dunn-Outrageous year between AA/AAA/MLB. Hasn't improved on his age 21 season.

Jason Giambi-13 games of pro ball at age 21. Didn't make it to the majors until 24. His OPS+ in his first full season was 38 points less than his career avg, although if you want to put an * here, I'll understand.

Vlad Guerrero-Put up an OPS+ of 117 in the majors over 325 AB. Broke out to 150 the next year and hasn't looked back.

Travis Hafner-16 HR in 425 AB in A ball. Didn't get his first full time MLB gig until age 27.

Ryan Howard-Another college guy playing in low A, wouldn't see regular playing time until he's 25.

Nick Johnson-Out for the year. Was crazy as a 20yo in AA, and might be one of the few cases where an injury affects the career of a position player. Had an OPS+ of <99 thorugh age 23, 125 for career.

Chipper Jones-Put up similar power with less Ks at AAA. Got injured the next year, put up an OPS+ of 108 the next, 143 for career.

Joe Mauer-Damn these injuries. 100 dominant ABs in the bigs. 107 OPS+ at age 22 in first full time duty, > 130 since.

David Ortiz-Big Papi hit a lot of home runs in the minors, but started the year in A+. His age 27-31 OPS+ is ~50 pts higher than his age 21-25 OPS+.

Albert Pujols-Major league superstar, has only marginally improved since his age 21 rookie of the year.

Aramis Ramirez-Playing well in AAA after a failed MLB stint at age 20. OPS+ through 550 AB of ~70, broke out at age 23 with 122, slid back for a year, then had a peak of ~132.

Manny Ramirez-Spanking the ball between AA and AAA. Was a full fledged star by age 23.

Alex Rodriguez-In his second full season in the bigs and already an MVP candidate.

Frank Thomas-Struggled out of college in high A. Broke out at age 22, basically starting his peak immidiately.

David Wright-Had his breakout year, starting in AA and ending up in MLB. His career OPS+ is 20 pts higher than his age 21 263 AB season. Was likely as good as he's going to be by age 22.