[cato-tonia]

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To answer this quickly: while I respect those that use Kelly, I don't use it. I go by my gut feel of how much risk I can stand for the perceived edge. Sometimes that perceived edge is due to confidence levels - meaning if I think I have 3% edge, but I'm not really sure, I may bet less with the 3% edge than when I think I have 1% edge, but I'm 100% positive I have 1% edge. For example, I'd happily bet a lot on a coin flip if I'm getting +105 and I know the coin flipper isn't cheating. But if I think fair value is -120, and I can get -105, I may bet less than in the coin-flip situation if I am not that confident that my -105 number is correct.

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you have got to be kidding.

tell me you're kidding.

-c

on second thought, i can completely understand why anyone who makes 3500 bets a year would rather not maximize his profit.