Re: Q9s flops a good draw
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I would never think of C/R this river unless my opponents are complete idiots. That river card is the worst card possible for Button unless he was holding a set. Hero C/R flop (you range him here). Then the river pairs the top card and completes the draw.
If bet/calling here is the correct play for button, against a sane opponent, then I'm missing a lot of bets, often, in hero's spot.
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You keep referencing a "sane" opponent. This guy is 44/27/2.8. I think his correct play is to check, but he's clearly over aggressive. We don't have to be right every time for a c/r to show a profit. If it only checks through every other time, or every thrid time, it's still probably profitable over betting out. I do agree that it's close though.
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