Re: NL10 - AKs unexpected river decision
Strange decision.
If I was villain, I put you on the draw based on weak flop / turn bets. Probably AcXc. I give low chances to your having the K. But if villain thinks you have the busted draw, raising so big on the river is idiotic since he'll win the same amount if you did miss your draw, and will lose much more if you have a real hand.
Many players at this level will limp/call in EP with SCs and mid/low PPs. I think that 22, 55, maybe even 99/TT or something in that neighborhood make a big part of his range. And most will slowplay sets on flop, and turn. I think the overbet means real strength here. If I had the boat on this board I would raise and pray you had the K. I think this is a fold. You need to be good here somewhere near 40% of the time, and I don't know if we have that.
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