[Aquadougs]

Ive done a bit math:

We have 5 choises (A to E), and here are my assumptions about them:

If i check, he bluffs (k), or valuebets set (s), or checks worse hands and wont put any morey in (1-k-s)
Route A If i checkraise (push), he folds the bluffs (k) and call with the sets (s)
Route B If i check-call and check river, he will valuebet (push) his set (s) or check his turnbluff (k)
Route C If i check-call and bet (push) the river, he will fold worse hands (k) and call with better hands (s)
Route D If i bet 17 , he will raise with his set (n) and he calls (and fold river) with worse hands (h) and fold the rest (1-h-n)
Route E We check/fold. EV=0


Here are an assumption how i think a nitty and tight player would play in this situation:

He calls at the flop with:
80%: set
10%: worse hands he will fold if i bet, but bet 17 if i check
10%: worse hands he will call if i bet

If we bet turn, we bet 17:

EV A: C/R.............-25.81
EV B: C/C_C/F...... -7.15
EV C: C/C_B........ -25.81
EV D: B.............. 8.15


This means: Betting the turn is most profitable given those assumptions.

What do you think about the assumptions?