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A less common, but effective, overbet is when the river ensures the pot is [almost certainly] split but you represent a stronger hand.
Here is an example from this afternoon where the [tightish] villain almost certainly has an Ace but the probability of him having a 7 kicker is very slim- making the overbet a +EV move.
Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com -
Hand History Converter
BTN: $204.35
SB: $196
Hero (BB): $188
UTG: $203.85
MP: $291.70
CO: $405.45
Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG calls $2, 4 folds, Hero checks
Flop: ($5) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $4</font>, UTG calls $4
Turn: ($13) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $10</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $20</font>, Hero calls $10
River: ($53) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $162 and is All-In</font>, UTG folds
Results: $53 Pot ($2.65 Rake)
Hero mucked Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and WON $50.35 (+$24.35 NET)
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this is pretty bad unless you actually have a 7. i agree you will be folding out a lot of chopping hands, but i don't think the pot is anywhere near big enough to make this kind of play. you're risking 180 to win 50, and the times you are called you're often getting smoked.
that being said, his turn bet does polarize his hand towards ace high straights.
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lol, you're joking right with your first statement?
Firstly, it's not $180 to win $50- our odds are significantly worse! It's $160 to win just $25.
If we are generous and assume he has a seven 5% of the time (tight players don't see a flop with A7 UTG, and 67 is also unlikely and he would probably have raised more on the turn) and calls without a seven 25% of the time (for a split) then our Expected Value is (70% * $25) - (5% * $160) = approx +$10 (and that's being generous!)