[MicroBob]

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On the year, Arizona has been in 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 situations (similar to what they were in on the last play of regulation) 18 times; they successfully convered 16/18 times.

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Are you suggesting that a 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 from the 1 yard line is the same as a 3rd or 4th and 1 from anywhere else on the field?

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That's exactly what I was thinking.
This isn't even close to correct and shows why people who try to use numbers but don't really think about the game itself can often-times be WAY in the wrong.

In a regular 3rd and 1 from the 50 or whatever your defensive alignment is MUCH different than it is on a goal-line stand on the 1.
Mostly it has to do with your defense needing to defend against big yardage too. Secondary needs to follow some guy who is breaking 20+ yards downfield.

On the 4th and goal on the 1 obviously everything is far more packed in and the situation is much different.
Converting 16 of 18 times on 3rd and 1 from elsewhere on the field really has very little to do with the goal-line situation or decision.