Re: Live 6/12: River Bluff?
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He was waiting for the 15/30. I knew it, and he should have known that I knew it, although he probably thought I was just another 6/12 donkey. Now just because he's waiting for the 15/30 doesn't make him a genius....
It's hard for me to believe I won't induce a fold at least 25% of the time here. His hand really looks like two overs trying to take down the pot, or possibly a flush draw like mine.
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It's really a read-dependent thing, although check-calling the river with a hand like A2s doesn't strike me as something only a genius would do. If he's just "messing around," does he bluff again with two overs or a missed flush draw, hoping you missed?
Without knowing if he's an idiot (and I generally assume a player is not a total moron until proven, although I also don't assume a player is good without evidence), you could be up against a player who bets his hands worse than ace high or K3 or better, and check-calls the rest.
I actually do like the bluff, I just don't think the information given is enough to say there's no way he can beat ace-high.
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