Re: 4/180 AQo OCs + GS vs. possible Stop N Go
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Let's see, if A,Q,K are outs that's ~43% to win if we're behind. Without the gutshot it's ~25%. So it looks like a reasonable call with the gutshot but not without. Why is everyone folding this??
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We need about 40% equity to call, and really the only hands in his range we have 40% equity against are K-Q, A-Q and air. If he has A-J or possibly even A-10 we have ~30%, if he has an overpair we have anywhere from ~30% to ~12%, if he has J-T we have just a gutshot, if he has a set we have the gutshot, and if he has A-K we're... dead to the gutshot the same as with a set or two pair. Against a very tight player you should probably be giving him credit here, even if you think his push looks like a draw.
On that subject, a pot-sized bet clearly commits both players to the hand, and betting the pot presumably with the intent of making the same bet all-in on the turn looks pretty strong, so I could see a lot of players value-shoving here, hoping you'll put them on a draw.
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