Re: Late in Tilt 22r: 77 pf spot
I think any 1010+ calls you here and AQs; AK. Your raise is going to look like a steal, so that assumption is fair. Maybe AQ folds. Maybe not - his stack is big.
We also know that OR's range is probably 55+; A10s; AJ+; KQs+; maybe like 109s, J10s. I think he calls you 40% the time. And, like ~10% of the time, you're getting called by someone else. So, ~50% of the time, it's folded. You're never getting called by a worse pair.
So, from the looks of it, it's probably borderline EV at best. With your BB, find better resteal situation. Also, you don't know if 73K is opening a lot, and you can still open for 2.3xBB or so in a few spots profitably.
Barry
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