Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
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I think the river here is really interesting. Assume you're bluff will be about 1/2 pot size.
I think his range is about 10% hands with tens: ATs,TT,JTo,JTs etc.
Without any information it's really hard to guess how often he'll fold his nothing here, but I'd say not many people lay down here maybe 10%.
So you lose 10% of the time, you split 72% of the time (0.9*0.8=0.72), and you win 10% of the time.
Therefore, you're expectation from the bet should be:
0.1*95+0.5*95*0.8-0.1*47.5 = $42.75
You're expectation when not betting is:
0.9*47.5=$42.75
So the Expexctation is the same using these figures. I thought this was quite interesting analysis espcially as I didn't pick the numbers specifically to make them turn out equal. Any thoughts?
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2 things - he has a ten more than 10% of the time AND you aren't taking into account that when he bets half pot as you said, he is getting repopped MORE than the percent of times his opponent has a 10. This might sound counter intuitive, but I have seen stupid [censored] like this before when some idiot thinks its going to be a split.
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