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To a certain extent we can say the market sees it and is reacting.
USD to Euro:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDEUR=X&t=5y
Oil:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CO/W
Gold:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GLD&t=5y
Current reductions in the long rates are, IMO, driven by the intenese fear out in the marketplace. When you don't know what to do with your money you throw it in treasuries. And boy do these mortgage buying wiz kids not know what the hell is going on.
When OPEC is thinking about accepting euros as payment, china is thinking about shifting to partial euro currency reserves, and Warren Buffet is publicaly declaring his lack of confidence in the dollar and buying brazilian real then at least some market actors are catching on.
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please refer to my specific discussion as before june 2007. i stated that numerous times because the market action now has many different aspects to it and is fundamentally driven by money market issues in both fear, high volatility in many markets, and "legitimate" recession expectations combined with fed cutting.
so can you please rethink your reply as it relates to the years 2001-2006 (or more accurately 1998-june 2007). why didn't markets react when this info was public?
what does that imply?
Barron