Re: $55 PP - 88 on the bubble
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Call, you probly won't get to shove any hands and if you get to shove button next hand you're gonna get called by UTG. I'd guess 60% equity vs his range is good enough so 66, ATo, A8s, KQo, KTs at least. You might have to win a showdown at some point anyway and winning this where you're >60% to win and will have a decent stack, a good chance at 2nd and some chance of 1st if you win looks like a good spot.
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Good post. I have never figured out what's best in these situations, because I'm putting (too much?) weight into the positive consequences for me if the other shortstack bust before me. I'm thinking like this:
If we fold, we will have about 18% equity. If next hand bigstack push and shortie calls, we'll have about 14,5% if shortie wins, and about 26% if he lose. Let's say bigstack pushes a wide range next hand, and shortie also calls with a wide range, which doesn't seem unreasonable, we might estimate that the other shortie bust 50% of the time, giving us on average 2% equity by folding and not getting involved.
Ok they will not clash every time, but that only means we will have to wait an orbit for the other shortie to call. What reduces this equity gained by the other players clashing is of course that the times we call in this hand and win, we will still get some of that when shortie bust later on. I realize this is rough estimates, and my reasoning might be wrong. Comments?
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