Re: $5 buyin $2500 Gurantee UB - Made flush T high, HU pot.
[ QUOTE ]
Great thinking. Id just like to stress that if he bluffs 25% of the time, a call will be a breakeven play, but the success percentage will also be 25%, busting you out in 3 out of 4 tourneys.
[/ QUOTE ]
Thatīs not the point. Read Bond18īs posts (besides others) and find out that the tournament life (namely the survival in a tournament) has no value itself. What counts is simply accumulating chips. So - if a call is +EV it (normally) doesnīt matter if you risk your tourney life with it (except for very special situations like satellites).
<u>Back to the original post:</u> your flop bet seems ridiculously small - telegraphing very well that youīre extremely unsure about your hand but feel committed to make a conti-bet here. Donīt do that!! If I stuck in Villains shoes here I maybe had pushed you off this hand with nothing but air ...
So - either make a decent flop-bet (to protect against flush-draws) or even better: check! If Villain checks behind you can bet this turn but fold to a raise. If Villain made a decent flop bet I would fold as well. So far you havenīt invested a big portion of your stack so keep your losses small. Look at this flop and remember: you either lose very much money (when the heart comes and Villain has a bigger heart or Villain has a K or an overpair) OR you win very little money. So the implied odds make me acting very cautious here.
|