I find that I too rarely get down to analyzing the math behind fold eq situations, so please correct any mistakes I've made here.
Party Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com -
Hand History Converter
UTG: $216
MP: $237.10
CO: $66.20
Hero (BTN): $243.70
SB: $196
BB: $219.65
CO posts $2
Pre-Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG folds, MP calls $2, CO checks, <font color="red">Hero raises to $11</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $38</font>, 3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $243.70 and is All-In</font>
CO poster is obv. horrible and doesn't have a hand, UTG+1 is loose/terrible.
My stats/notes/reads on SB says he's 19/14 and he 3-bets too much preflop. I'd been playing 30/20 at the table, so if he's paying any kind of attention to stats/the table he knows I'm raising anything playable here.
Now, I think he needs JJ+/AK to call this, against this my hand is 33% and there's roughly $50 in the pot, so:
EV when called = .33 * 400 - 200 = -68
EV when he folds = 50
0 = X * -68 + (1-X) * 50 = -68X + 50 -50X = -118X + 50 <=>
118X = 50 <=> X = .42
He needs to fold 42% of the time to make this play profitable, right?
Corrections to math and comments on the play are welcome.
Hope this doesn't turn out to be one of the bad posts I berated in the (nc) thread [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
EDIT: Just gotten corrected, more precisely:
EV when called is .33 * 398 - 185 = -52
EV when he folds is 55
X = probability he folds
0 = X*55 + (1-X)* -52 = 55X -52 + 52X <=> 52 = 107X <=> X~= .49.
So he needs to fold around 50% of the time.