[Mitke]

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Could you explain your reasons for a c/r here?

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Sure. He capped preflop, so I'm putting him on a premium hand that isn't likely to fold (even JJ usually calls down after capping preflop and AK will usually c-bet the flop and call a raise, but fold the turn whether I check/raise or not).

There are 16 combos of AK and 6 combos of JJ (22 total combos) that I beat. There are 6 combos of AA and 3 combos of QQ (9 total combos) that I lose to. There's only one remaining combo of KK for the chop. This means I'm ahead a lot more often than I'm behind.

So, I extract maximum value in my flop c/r. If he 3bets, then I can call down.

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There's only 8 combos of AK. Hero holds two Kings. That doesn't of course change your reasoning behind the c/r. Now it would be 14 combos you beat vs 9 you don't.

IMHO, I'd discount the JJ and AK because of Villain's very nitty stats and I'd discount them enough that a c/r doesn't look appealing to me, regardless that c/r looking the best way to lose CO from the big pot.

Nevertheless, we are in guesstimate land now so there is no point in arguing that much further. There's a small chance that my guesstimate has become results oriented too.

I can't see faults in your logic for the c/r or your plan for the rest of the hand, just the premises.