Re: Set in blind war
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The reason I did not shove is I put him a wheel draw with two overs. I wanted him to catch an ace or a king on the river. I was going to call anything on the river, but the 5 was the only card I was not ready for.
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The irony here is that we need for him to be overvaluing his turn "wheel draw" to explain his turn bet, if Ax is what he has (and if in his mind he's not just purely bluffing). But then if he's overvaluing it on the turn, it's possible he's overvaluing it on the river as well after it "hit" [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img].
A river 5 doesn't help Ax so much at showdown, of course, except to give it a miracle chop, but FWIW, a 5 is going hit on the river 4 times for every 6 times that Villain spikes one of his overcards (if he has Ax). So if that 5 were really an issue, giving Villain a cheap chance to improve would seem to be reckless, given that the pot is far from empty.
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