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bubaloo · #1 11-25-2007, 10:01 AM

The Well: aejones (summary) 01/03/07

[ QUOTE ]
A stranger is being shown around a village that he has just become part of. He is shown a well and his guide says "On any day except Saturday, you can shout any question down that well and you'll be told the answer" .

The man seems pretty impressed, and so he shouts down: Why not on Saturday? and the voice from in the well shouts back: Because on Saturday, it’s your day in the well.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK well I'm getting over some illness so I'm not going anywhere for the next few days..
I don't have the quote, but I'm down in a well, feel free to ask things about anything, or throw things, etc.

 want to give a general background?
what level you play now?
any advice for a SSNL player to get better?
You have any "aha" moment(s) where everything just started to click?
Do you play poker as a living? Goto school? 

I'll look up a general background, I have one written on my computer somewhere.

Now I play primarily 5/10 NL, my shots at 25/50 have gone terribly, and 10/20 is rigged against me, I'm not really doing anything wrong- just a bunch of coinflips and suckouts leaves me down like 10k in 2k hands or something. I still play some 3/6 and 2/4 whenever the games are good. In this state, you need to be able to play more than one level (especially at midstakes) to find decent games.

My advice for SSNL players is: study a lot. I used to spend like 4 hours a day on 2+2 (back when the information was better, honestly). I'm terrible with links, but there's a lot of stuff in the archives that I would highly recommend checking out. Even now, you can find a good discussion or two in HSNL or MSNL. When all else fails, grind grind grind to get a roll, and then get better by experience.

I have "aha" moments all the time. I'm constantly having revelations about "holy [censored] I could be sick good, where did this play come from?" I think the one moment where I decided I could kill online poker is when I got my preflop game together. The one moment I realized I could kill all forms of poker was when reading a thread about a Samo/Bld hand, and a certain thought process, it was just amazing when I realized how sick this particular line was... and then I just started thinking about the game better after that.

I go to college at Butler University in Indianapolis, but I could play professionall if I want. I promised my mother I'd get a college degree, and since I'm not 21 anyways, I don't think I could make that much more money if I only played poker (plus I think I would burn out).

I've had PT since August. This graph is 1/2 and 2/4 primarily from my old computer.

This graph and SS is from my new computer- since Thanksgiving. I haven't played more than 2k hands in the last two weeks, and I didn't play at all for two weeks at the beginning of January becuase I was at the PCA.

How did you build your bankroll for the midstakes games?
How many hands did you play at the lower stakes?
In general what do you like to do as the pfr when you flop middle pair on a dry/wet board oop?
Post a pic?
How long till you think you'll be appreciated? 

I grinded.

Probably 200k at 1-2 (including pre poker tracker) and 150k at 2-4.

I c-bet a lot, as a default, a lot a lot. I also change things up, and middle pair is a good spot to mix it up. In ssnl, I recommend c-betting and going from there. I c-bet dry flops and wet flops about the same amount: dry flops becuase no one ever gets a piece of them, and wet ones becuase if I want to win the hand, I have to bet the flop becuase no one ever believes you have a hand if you checked the flop behind and it was draw heavy.

I will never fully be appreciated. If I am, probably after I die.

 DO you recommend personal coaching for newbies if they can afford it? If so what affordable coaches do you recommend? 

I do not know general rates, If/when I do get into coaching, I will prob charge 200-250 an hour, I think that's about right. I highly recommend a coach if you have the roll but are struggling to move up. I don't recommend spending an entire roll on coaching. I do recommend getting good poker friends to talk about stuff with. I was lucky enough to meet a good friend at the PCA in 2006 that I've talked poker with for the past year.

I don't know what coaches to recommend, if for some reason you have a decision in mind, feel free to pm me and I will simply say "I respect his posts" or "this guy sucks."

 How do you see the future of online poker? Are the games getting tougher at your stakes? Do you see it getting to the point where you might not find it worthwhile playing? What's your over/under on how much longer you will be playing seriously? 

The games are getting more difficult. However, since guys tilt/spew and play exploitably in general, I feel like I can still beat today's games very well. In fact, the more difficult the games have become, the more I have moved up strangely enough.

I think the future of online poker is doomed. If they continue to get worse at this rate, it'll all be over soon. By over, I mean it'll be all the best of the best playing at the same time. I see some guys who play 5/10 all the time that are regulars that I KNOW have to be losing money. So, if the guys who are regs are losing and or moving down, it's just going to trickle down until it's slow death. For now though, I guess I'll just make what I can and not ask questions. I think the online poker community as a whole really needs a break soon, I just don't know where it's going to come from. Eventually, it just won't be worth playing- I'm actually kind of looking forward to the death of it to be honest, as weird as that sounds. I just want to have time where I don't feel like "If I'm not playing, then I'm losing money."

I hope to be playing seriously and making money for the new several months... then, hopefully I'll be able to just relax and take 6 months off before I turn 21 (December 1st) where I'll have more pressure to play seriously live.

 what adjustments does a winning SSNL need to make in order to be a winning MSNL player?

If you had to describe your personal strategy to win at a no limit hold'em table in 2 sentences, what would you say? 

A winning SSNL player must play a large amount of hands to acquire "reads." Having sick reads (as I have) do not come overnight. I know what guys have becuase I've seen ten thousand guys play the exact same hand in a similar way, and I quantify players into categories.

I play mostly shorthanded, so this will be based upon that:

"Bet a lot because no one ever has anything. Always stay one level ahead of your opponents."

 it seems as if all of the fish have moved to NL and/or tourneys. do you think since the edge of the "good" NL player over the fish is so pronounced, and because the number of decent NL players is steadily increasing, that eventually the fish will move back to limit hold 'em because luck/variance plays a bigger factor and they can lose their money more slowly?

it wasn't more than 10 years ago or so that NL hold 'em was virtually extinct from being spread because of this very reason. of course the poker boom caused by ESPN, the WSOP with NLHE tourney-style, and the internet made the big bet variety soooo popular. after all, everyone wants to be the next Gus Hansen, right?

i've been thinking about this for a while and it may be 2 or 3 or 5 years or whatever, but if someone is looking at NLHE as a career down the road i think it's something to consider. i say this because i am a LHE player and a NL player(almost exclusively live), and i've noticed a ton of winning limit players trying to make the switch. 

People like to say "all in." Think about that for a while.

[ QUOTE ]
..... and I quantify players into categories.

[/ QUOTE ]
 Such as ??? 

Well, it's like this. Live, I'm looking at 23234 different things. I can't name them all, but here are some: This guys chips are neat, so he's tight. I just heard this guy say "but he didn't even protect his hand there." So I know what level that guy is on. I can't exactly explain it... But subconsciously I'm putting this guy into ten categories, so that if I get to the river and he makes a bet, I say "well, he can't have a big hand becuase he checked behind the turn, and I know that he would protect 2pair+, so he must have a one pair hand that went for pot control on the turn and now value on the river, or a bluff becuase the draw missed. I know based on how he's moving slowly that he doesn't want to set me off, so he only likes his hand, he doesn't love it. Based on things he said earlier, I know that he's not good enough to switch it up and induce a bluff check raise here- therefore I can CR bluff this river for sure becuase my image is pretty tight and straightforward."

Online, a read might be "He's standard postflop, probably 8-tabling, playing 18/12 and nothing out of the ordinary. I have no proof that he's capable of tricks, so his range can't be merged here and he must have a monster or air to raise me on the river. He has to have a set here 100% of the time this deep, he's not good enough to try and take me off of an overpair, etc. etc."

95% of players fit into groups. Every once in a while there comes a guy who is just sick postflop and you can't quantify him. Jason Strasser, Bld, Samo, etc. these are guys who you can't just say "are lagtards" or whatever, becuase they'll always be a step ahead of you and pick up a hand when they need it.

 Any hands you want to share that you are proud of? Like a massive bluff you pulled off? A sick call you made? Big pot? 

All of my hands are gone in poker tracker... my friend was out here, he imported a bunch of stuff... anyways, they're all completely lost except the ones I played in the last two days. I have the results of them, but the text of them is [censored] gone... One time I called a 4-bet all in with 44 on a A 8 9 board (or something like that) against 2+2er bruin and was right... If he's got the hand and wants to share it, he can. The biggest pot online I won was a few weeks ago... it was like a 7k'ish pot at 5/10 vs 2+2er hausopher where I made bottom quads and he had a full house, if he wants to share he can post it..

Live, I won a 10k pot with bottom boat playing 10-20 uncapped.. I had about a 20k stack that night in front of me, that was a pretty cool experience.

 You know nothing about my game.

I have a $5000 BR and play 100 NL 6 max at PS right now.

My last 25K hands have stats of:

2.55 bb/100 (PT)
15.4 vpip
11.38 pfr

How do I improve and get my winrate up? (your best guess without knowing my game besides the basic stats)

I have a feeling you will say play more hands, raise more...I have been trying but no idea how to get my PF numbers too much higher than I have them. It might be a fear of playing in pots with "substandard" hands, I am not too sure.

Could you include specific examples of how/where to raise, limp more? 

don't limp. you can call raises behind obv, like mp opens and you have 77 on the button orwhatever. anyways, basically it comes down to this. open TONS of han ds from the CO and button. T9o, K8s, 53s, AXs, you better open all of these from the button, and almost all of them from the CO. HJere's the biggest key: I'd rather have T7s from the button and open than KJo from UTG and open. I'd rather have 56s from the button than AJo from UTG+1. Do you understand me yet? look at your winning rates from CO and button vs the blinds. the differential will be sick, truck fools from the button, your positional advantage is so sick you can't even fathom it.

also, you might have postflop leaks I don't know about. i recommend floating in moderation, raising flops with air, being in general aggro until other people show you strength. however, knmow who you shouldn't fire multiple barrels against (i.e. who is a calling station at the table) and then value bet them to DEATH.

 i'm not even an SSNL player im in the micros but i cannot seem to win, in the long run. i can take my BR from 5 buyins to 15 but no matter what i lose it. i post hands and respond to hands and in general work very hard on my game. i havent play 75K hands yet though of NL...

how long did it take you to become a winner and other misc. info you have for a slight loser with a passion to turn it around. advice etc.? 

i don't know what to tell you... tighten up maybe? pound top pair plus, play a lot of hands, read a lot about them... i can't imagine that the work won't pan out for you. sometimes, it just takes time.

 Not sure if you've already answered this question (haven't read the whole thread yet, will do a bit later)

Why is your WTSD stat so high and it doesn't seem to affect your W$SD (which is very high tbh) especially for that winrate. 

maybe i just guess right a lot? i call a lot on the end with ace high and [censored] and third pair to see if i'm right... i dunno a lot about stats to be honest


How do you play 3K+ hands a day while in school? Seriously..

I remember a couple of weeks ago you, Timex, and I were talking about what ptBB/100 you could attain over 100K hands of 100NL(6) on Stars. So, 8-tabling with no distractions, playing your A-Game, what winrate could you attain?

Redsox or Yankees?

22 or 89s?

Donkaments or Limit HE?

|| Who are the top 3 2+2'ers you have played against consistently at 2/4-5/10 ||

Assuming you were rolled for HSP, could you beat that game? 

I don't know.. I haven't really played that many lately, but when school is slow I've been known to have 5k-10k hands a day sometimes... I just randomly fire up in the evening, sometimes play to get unstuck, sometimes just play to meet a quota..

I could probably win at 12 ptbb/100 hands at 100nl over 100k hands, but it's like how many licks till you get to the center of a tootsie roll pop.. the world will never know.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX. I'm a [censored] huge White Sox fan, huge. I go to opening day every single year (for about the last 8) and I went ao a handful of playoff games two years ago.

89s, are you kidding me? sooo many possibilities.

Donkaments > LHE.

To be honest, even among 2+2ers, there aren't a lot of "thinking" players. Krantz is definitely a thinking player, I think I've done alright against him over maybe just a few hundred or a thousand hands, but he's dangerous becuase he plays loose. Luckychewy is a good thinking player at 2/4- 3/6, he always played very tight aggressive was just really really solid. Same goes for Psier, he's a very taggy 2+2er who I don't think posts too often, but he's been very very solid against me at 2/4 and 3/6.

Of course I could beat High Stakes Poker. The play is [censored] awful. I wrote a post about where we are as MSNL'ers back in the day when ski started a post about how good we are in comparison to Live pros... The fact is, with proper adjustments, the above average MSNL'er is just very, very good at poker. We're among the top 5% in our profession, easily, ahead of a bunch of live pros (assuming you can make the transition to live play).
[ QUOTE ]
I'm a 19 year old sophomore in college from the midwest. I started online about a year and a half ago. I had about a 2k roll when Party first opened 3-6 and 5-10 NL, and my friends bugged me to sit shortstacked. I made about 30k in two months that way. Since I knew nothing about variance and little about deepstacked poker, I lost 10k over the summer of 2005. I struggled to get a roll going in Fall and Winter of '05 and won very little at poker (I had cashed most of the money I'd previously won out and put it in investments). I played well for periods of time, but went on swings and didn't keep a proper bankroll and tilted a lot a lot.

Beginning of '06, I went to the Carribean with a friend who won a seat in the PCA. I won 1500 or so playing 2-5 (I got owned by full ring, but some British kids wanted to play short handed one night after the poker room closed and I took them for about 2k). I really got a bankroll going with advice from friends somewhere around March. I 4-tabled 1-2 primarily, and I made a few thousand doing that. My last 6 months of poker look like this: ~3k March, ~3k April, ~2k May, ~4k June, end of July, I move to 2-4 and 6 table, I make ~8k in July, then I go on vacation, and make ~8k the last week of August. I'm up around 15k in September thus far. Thus, my roll is like 19k in Party after cashouts, and 3k in fulltilt, and a few hundred in stars and neteller for donkaments.

At 1-2 and my first 40k hands of 2-4 I played about 32/20 per poker tracker. I was known on the MSNL forums for playing extremely LAG preflop and postflop. I was playing a lot of small pots, but playing too many hands and neglecting position. I've tighted up to ~26/18 (don't know how accurate this is) by folding stuff like QT and 36s UTG, and trying to watch the hands that I call preflop raises with (eliminating two gap SCs and stuff). I've always said that I will win more money the higher stakes I go. My WR is only ~3 at 1-2 and ~3 at 2-4. The reason for this is that I still tilt somewhat, and I just really tend to spew chips because I like to "try" new things, etc. I make too many thin call downs, and just play too loose over periods of time in general.

The reason I'm most hesitant about doing something like this is that I have good friends in poker. I've got a friend that was beating 5-10 at about 3.5 ptbb/100 over 200k hands, but went on a recent breakeven stretch and is moving down to 3-6. He's got donkament scores of 13.5k, 23k, and 36k. He's made about 200k in the past year, but he's a sophomore at a college near me, without many plans to drop out. I have another friend that is up about 60k lifetime, and is playing the same stakes as me. I've got another friend that plays professionally, making a little over 30k a month at 2-4 to 5-10 and 10-20, primarily heads up and some shorthanded.

See, I have lots of poker resources around me. As for me, I was fourth in my class in high school and I've been good at everything I've ever done or put time into. I read these forums like crazy, a few hours a day or whenever I'm just not doing anything. I'm having my best month yet, so maybe I don't really need this, but I wanted to put my name out there just for the hell of it. A lot of whether or not I would want to do something like this depends upon what you want to charge, my level of satisfaction, etc. Also, I have no plans on quitting college, but I have just 13 credit hours and really have no need to put more than a few hours a week into it, along with going to class.

[/ QUOTE ]

That was written in the middle of September. I was breakeven in October, got pissed, played tournaments for November (big mistake, prob lost money, ran awful, spewed too). Decemeber I beat 2/4 on Stars for about 30k, was prob the biggest winners or one of them. I went to the PCA beginning of January, had a backer buy me in full (a few people think very, very highly of my game).

Now, I made about 20k profit in 2007 probably, maybe less actually. I have trouble keeping track of [censored] since I win so much at 5/10 and lose so much when I move up randomly. That is roughly my poker history though.

 1) I play 1/2 and have been making 5bb/100 over 35K hands, what do you think my chances of success at 2/4 would be? (I play a fishier euro site, the games aren't as tough as FTP/PS)

2)My vpip/pfr/af are 24/11/4, what changes do I need to make as I move up? 

1) Your chances are probably good. I found 2/4 to be not too challenging to be honest, and my lifetime WR is higher at 2/4 than 1/2 over big samples. Adjust to the aggression, and you'll be okay. AVOID good regulars on your left... make them prove that they can make position advantage a big deal, but when they do, don't doubt them, just get the [censored] out of the way.

2)You are too passive preflop.. You are most DEFINITELY calling too much out of the blinds... It's hard to play KTs or A5s or even KQo from out of position against a decent player. Essentially, you should probably be 3-betting more from the blinds to a CO or button open. First, their hands don't have to be that strong. Second, if they do call, your advantage to bet first on the flop is HUGE... basically, you're using the reverse implied odds of their hand against them... and that's huge. It doesn't matter how often you hit the flop, it's how often they miss.. Variance will certainly go up, but by 3-betting more you're definitely going to up your winrate (if you do it in the right places, when the y can open light, and with the right hands, preferrably nondominated hands that tend to be the best hand preflop, or suited connectors to mix things up).

 This is the hand:

There wasn't much history. I was running at like 22/18 or something around there, playing kinda aggro, aware of who AEjones was. I dont think he was aware of me.

It's a really crazy hand all the way around. After he called and i saw that he had 33, i asked for his IM, was like OMG WTF?!?!?!?! how can you call!??!?! and i packed it up for that session. 

POKERSTARS GAME #7222253708: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($2/$4) - 2006/11/29 - 03:00:39 (ET)
Table 'Kalliope' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: MK_Ruthless ($485 in chips)
Seat 2: aejones ($408 in chips)
Seat 3: The Iotola ($1209.65 in chips)
Seat 4: PrinceLuc23 ($451.60 in chips)
Seat 5: no_dow_for_u ($799.10 in chips)
Seat 6: holdemhux ($338 in chips)
no_dow_for_u: posts small blind $2
holdemhux: posts big blind $4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PrinceLuc23 [7d 4d]
MK_Ruthless: folds
aejones: raises $8 to $12
The Iotola: folds
PrinceLuc23: calls $12
no_dow_for_u: folds
holdemhux: folds
*** FLOP *** [As 9c 8s]
aejones: bets $20
PrinceLuc23: raises $46 to $66
aejones: raises $102 to $168
PrinceLuc23: raises $271.60 to $439.60 and is all-in
aejones: calls $228 and is all-in
*** TURN *** [As 9c 8s] [Ad]
*** RIVER *** [As 9c 8s Ad] [Td]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
aejones: shows [3c 3d] (two pair, Aces and Threes)
PrinceLuc23: mucks hand
aejones collected $819 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $822 | Rake $3
Board [As 9c 8s Ad Td]
Seat 1: MK_Ruthless folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: aejones showed [3c 3d] and won ($819) with two pair, Aces and Threes
Seat 3: The Iotola folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: PrinceLuc23 (button) mucked [7d 4d]
Seat 5: no_dow_for_u (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: holdemhux (big blind) folded before Flop

 aejones, wtf is your thought process in that hand? 

I wish I knew sometimes... I guess it was like mostly "feel" although I hate when people say that.. I just thought he would bluff me? I dunno, 90% of people think I'm out of my mind when I say things like that...

bruin, thanks a lot for posting that hand.

here's an unorthodox one i played just recently so i actually have the hh for it.. almost standard, i actually have a thought process on this one

POKERSTARS GAME #8591445316: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($5/$10) - 2007/02/23 - 21:59:56 (ET)
Table 'Giacobini II' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 2: aejones ($1371.50 in chips)
Seat 5: mrlimp ($2363.50 in chips)
aejones: posts small blind $5
mrlimp: posts big blind $10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to aejones [Kd Jh]
rebeccasback joins the table at seat #3
aejones: raises $20 to $30
mrlimp: raises $70 to $100
aejones: calls $70
*** FLOP *** [4c Js 8c]
Kijmcd joins the table at seat #4
mrlimp: bets $120
aejones: calls $120
*** TURN *** [4c Js 8c] [Td]
mrlimp: bets $240
aejones: calls $240
*** RIVER *** [4c Js 8c Td] [7d]
mrlimp: bets $620
aejones: calls $620
*** SHOW DOWN ***
mrlimp: shows [3d As] (high card Ace)
aejones: shows [Kd Jh] (a pair of Jacks)
aejones collected $2159 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $2160 | Rake $1
Board [4c Js 8c Td 7d]
Seat 2: aejones (button) (small blind) showed [Kd Jh] and won ($2159) with a pair of Jacks
Seat 5: mrlimp (big blind) showed [3d As] and lost with high card Ace

 What is your thought process in that hand if you don't mind sharing? 

preflop is nonstandard, i don't remember why i called, i guess he had been 3-betting me marginally light and i was going to make plays at X number of flops.

flop i flop top pair, no reason to turn my hand into a bluff, so i just called.

the turn i still have top pair, i feel liek he'll shut down on a lot of rivers with one pair hands bigger than mine, and that the board is going to get dangerous to bluff at, so i can possibly see this hand down for a reasonable price by just calling, so i do.

on the river, here is the trickiness. i basically have to decide a few things: what level is he on? is he good enough to value bet a one pair hand stronger than mine? is he good enough to value bet two pair or three of a kind on a board with four to a straight? can he have a ten? can i have a ten? i eventually decided that he could NOT value bet one pair hands like QQ (though it would be great to in some spots) since he's not merging his range here, my hand is as good as any bluff catcher, b ecuase i decided that in order to bet that river he had to have a monster or a hand with no showdown value... and i eventually decided that he had a hand with no showdown value, so i called.

 and didnt you donkingly stack off with 1 pair in the pca? 

i got two outered with one to come. my backer was so stupid he didn't even think about how awful i run before he put me in the event, even though i was probably a big favorite at the start. he got in the moeny though, he's decent at poker.

 aejones how much for a lock of your hair?? 

if you have to ask, you can't afford it.

Also, I forgot to mention.. in the 2+2ers that give me the most trouble, FoxwoodsFiend is definitely number one.. Dunno how I forgot him, but he's sick and I'm always value betting the worst hand and he actually CRes the river with a good frequency.. he's scary good.


What is a smartLAG?
how do I become one?
what would you do to be able to play on party again? 

A smartLAG is playing a bunch of hands in a smart fashion. That is, you can't just be very loose preflop and open a lot of hands, you have to be willing to pick up tons of pots postflop... It's also staying away from being very spewy, because it's easy to get overaggro.

Becoming one is like becoming a Jedi- it takes intense practice and skill.

To play on Party poker? My left nut.


should I eat the day old unrefrigerated pizza? 

how hungry are you? you know there are starving kids in china... seems like a no brainer to me.

 aejones,

post your royals.

should I want to sex you? 

i don't really know what "post your royals" means, but yea, you probably should want to sex me.

 How much does your thought process during hands involve math?
And what's the deal w/ your second Owen Wilson avatar? 

Very little with math... the only time it'll involve math is like this: "I have to call 200 into 600, and I only have to be right one in three times on the river to show profit in the long run, and I think I'm better than one in thre times." or "I have 9 pure outs, so even if I don't have implied odds, he's bet small enough on the turn so that I must call since I am drawing to the nuts, or I have made a poker 'mistake' and it's unprofitable."

Other than those specific instances, I don't know too much about the math.. I just believe that should roughly know, there are "x" number of unseen cards, and I have "y" number of outs, so if I divide, I get this number, etc.

The Owen Wilson thing stems from this aim conversation:

friend (2:18:38 AM): good job
friend(2:18:52 AM): A+ for your work
me (2:18:52 AM): good job what
friend (2:18:54 AM): in zoolander
friend (2:18:57 AM): was a great movie
me (2:18:59 AM): lollllllllllllll
friend (2:19:05 AM): and you were great in it

This AIM convo was totally random. Basically, the guy just thinks I look (and maybe act, I dunno ask him) like Owen Wilson. In general, I crack a lot of jokes and have a good sense of humor, and I have long blonde'ish colored hair, so who knows. Also, Wedding Crashers is the funniest movie of all time, and it's not close, so that might have something to do with it.

 aejones,

can you post some tips on things to say to people to tilt them?

and how to exploit their tilt optimally? 

The key to tilting people is to never get pissed. Always "kill them with kindness." For instance, say things like "lol" even though whatever happened wasn't funny. If they ask what is funny, say "nothing special, but your game is a classic joke" or something like that. Start specific long and drawn out conversations, but be completely serious. For instance, start one with "Are you related to Jamie Gold?.." Definitely let them know that you aren't taking this as serious as them, it'll mega tilt them even if they don't realize it.

Also, sit on a guys left and 3-bet the [censored] out of them, they will either start four bet shoving with suboptimal hands, or CR'ing flops with air, or just bowing down and shipping you their open raise.

To exploit tilt, you have to wait for a big hand. Generally top pair + is good enough, but if you're deeper, wait for something better. Just know that guys are going to want to gamboool with you, so make sure you have the goods.

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Also, I have some theories.. as far as talent levels in poker and getting better:

Basically, I think that some people can only get so good in poker. .... Poker takes this sick mix of self control and ability that I can't even explain.. Anyways, some people have it and some people don't. That is my theory.

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 OK so it's starting to sink in for me that I am only ever going to be able to get so good at poker - and unless at some point I run into a sick heater I am never going to make it into the top bracket of playing poker.

I've played a couple of years - have a good grasp of the basics but seem to be getting nowhere fast - I took a break recently and studied hard away from teh tables and since I got back to them I think my game is much better than it was.

People tho value success differently - and for me if I can can get to 200NL and beat that game consistently and make $100/hr+ I'll be very very happy with my poker.

Of course I'd like to get to 5/10 + and be a winner at those games but realistically my goal this year is to get to about $100/hr - who knows maybe something will "click" this year and I'll really start to understand this game I play and get inside peoples heads more and stuff.

aba said in his well thread that a trained monkey could beat 5/10NL.

In your guesstimation what level can a dedicated hard working player of average intelligence who works and studies and all that stuff get to and consistently win at playing poker if they don't seem to have much of this"inate ability" - i.e. how far can Joe "trained monkey" Average go if he puts the work in? 

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Even if you don't have a knack for poker, you should be able to beat 2/4 at least (probably even be a slight winner at 3/6 and 5/10) by just being super duper standard, having no special tricks or super reads where you get it in with ace high, but you know a few special lines to take with big hands, and you've memorized spots to take pots away from certain players. If you just pick up these tricks by reading and studying NLHE in general, then you can certainly do okay. I can't see a trained monkey beating 5/10 anymore, but he could probably be only a slight loser, and he could have CRUSHED 5/10 on Party one year ago. I could have CRUSHED 5/10 on Party one year ago; I know the crowd that beat it, and it the game have evolved such a sick amount in one year, that there were probably only a handful of scary regulars and a bunch of substandard average boring regulars that beat 5/10 on Party good.. this is pretty much common knowledge. Aba may not have played in the 5/10 game on Stars lately... at certain times, it might even be marginally difficult for him to beat, though he really is sick good at poker obviously and I'm sure he'd be one of, if not, the biggest winner.

I agree with you about valuing success differently as well- I really want to be the best. I can't sit and grind becuase the money is only of moderate importance to me. One day, when the games are tougher, I want to get out of school, hopefully get a serious roll together, and play a lot of poker... I want to be known as one of the best, I want people to say this kid is just sick... So, maybe that will happen, maybe it won't, but I try to be the best at everything I have an opportunity to partake in.

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since he's not merging his range here

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 wtf is "merging your range" ? - how do you do it and why is it necessary at MSNL?

lastly there was a thread recently in uNL where someone claimed "noone could possibly beat 25NL for 10PTBB/100 - I can't do it - and none of the datamined stats of people I see playing can do it therefore it is impossible - someone show me a 50K had sample with 10PTBB/100 or I know I'm right"

I am pretty convinced that any of the MSNL regs and a good chunk of SSNL regs could smash 10PTBB/100 at these very basic games but obv it would never be worth the time it would take for them to study those games for a little while before picking the awful predictable regs there to bits and then play 50K hands to prove the point.

If you had to - what kind of winrate do you think is realistically possible at 25NL over a 50K sample for you assuming you ran normally - and how big would the prop bet need to before you were interested in actually doing it?

and thanks for sharing [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Merging Ranges is somewhat of an advanced theory. Basically, it has to do with what you'll bet in a given situation. So.. let's take the river, where you can value bet thin.

(before I write this, I want you guys to know that sometime soon hopefully I'm going to make a sick long post in MSNL about merging ranges, so keep an eye out for that it's been a long time in the making I just haven't gotten all my thoughts together)

We'll use this Strasser hand as an example. I dont' have the link, but he was playing Phil Ivey heads up 300/600 I think. Basically, the board came K Q 8 3 4 or something, and Strassa fired the river (I think he bet all three streets) with QJ. So, he had second pair second kicker, and he bet the river from position when he could have checked behind. Some people say "WTF awful," but they're basically wrong becuase Strassa is merging his range. In HU, ace high and small pairs are frequently the nuts. So basically, if Ivey thinks Strassa is bluffing (there was a whiffed straight and maybe flush draw out there), then Ivey will call with what he percieves to be all bluff catchers. Those hands are like 8x, pairs between 99-JJ, maybe AJ high, 55, or a bunch of random little pairs. Strassa's hand of 2P2K is ahead of what he percieves Ivey's range is to CC two streets- so he bets the river. In a vacuum, Ivey held Kx, for top pair no kicker, and he quickly called Strassa. So in this instance, it didn't work, he was value betting the worst hand, but part of merging your range is value betting the worst hand at times. Basically, when people get to the river, they're so happy to check behind hands like even top pair sometimes, and that is generally not good.

Your range looks like this |___________________| So, Most people will bet this much of their range |___ (check behind) _____| That is, they will bet the worst 10% of their hands (missed draws, with NO showdown value) and the best 15% (top pair top kicker, two pairs, trips, etc.) Now, if people percieve you as a bluffer (in a sense, everyone wants to have an aggressive image, people always think I'm bluffing) then you want to merge your range so that you are betting MUCH more of your made hands (like second pair, soemtimes, or the bad end of a straight when people assume you'll only bet the nuts or air becuase it's a good board to bluff at) So, you want your range of hands to bet to look like this |_____ (check behind) __________| If I'm betting more of the hands at the top end of my spectrum (range) then I'm making people's decisions on the river MUCH more difficult.

For example, that KJ hand I posted? Well, if he's good, he knows my hand is defined often (but not always, I can have a ten like JT or something) as a one pair hand trying to get to showdown. Therefore, he should probably bet AA-QQ for value, he should also bet a hand like 89 for two pair for value. This is somewhat advanced (maybe) for some of you guys, because players that you play against will often be scared to death of four to a straight boards, etc. People up higher just look at them as great boards to bluff at a lot of the times. So if this guy was good enough to bet AA on this river, a strong one pair hand, I'd be [censored]. But since I already established that I didn't think he could bet one pair hands like AA in his range, I can more comfortably call becuase the hands that he bets with look more like this |__________ (check behind) ___| where the hands at the left side are bluffs, a very high % of the time, and the hands at the right side are only his very strongest made hands.

Hope that helps, I like the way I wrote that out I think, might be a little confusing.

 I could smash 25NL for 15ptbb/100 so god knows what a good player would beat it for 

Yea I'm pretty sure this is true, dunno what that guy was talking about. I'd be winning so many hands without going to showdown and there'd be so many spots where I could get my image working and value bet marginal hands.

Also, in regards to the merging of ranges, I played a hand the other day where a guy bet KQ on a K 2 3 5 6 board, and I called like 350 on the river with A5 like a donk.. he really owned me there, made a great value bet. Basically, he merged his range fantastically on the river and I told him he owned me.

Also, more importantly I think the flop is one spot where you have to merge your range the most, but I'll talk about that in my post if I get around to it. The turn is probably the least important spot to merge it... but it gets more important that higher you go.

Back in the day people could beat 10/20 without any knowledge of really being concerned about merging their range, but nowadays it's going to get more important... it gets much more important the higher levels that you go.

Also let it be known that it's tough to value bet thin vs really good players becuase really good players know how to CR the river (even at 5-10 people don't do it enough) with the proper frequency. But when people don't, at 2/4 and below for sure, value betting thin is the rage.
Here's a link (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...art=1&vc=1) to a thread where I talk about merging ranges a little bit... I make a post or two in there that you guys might really find interesting.

 What pokertracker set up do you use (I'm talking HUD here). Can you offer me any advice for 12 tabling? I have the hand speed. 

I have Poker Tracker and PAHUD, which I use VPIP/PFR/AF/hands, but to be honest, I put little to no stock in their AF. Basically, I use these stats to know general opening ranges which factor into their hand spectrum on later streets in the hand.

If you are going to play many tables, you will likely use these stats as guides to make reads. This is good, in general, if you learn how to use them properly (many people will use WTSD as well, and while I could basically figure out how to use it, I've always been to lazy to change my PAHUD). However, be very careful that you will be using preflop reads to make postflop decisions. When I'm playing live or playing fewer tables, I'm caring not at all about preflop stuff... I'm caring about "I saw him CR the river with air 500 hands ago, what does he expect me to do to it this time? Does he know that I remembered that, or is he playing too many tables? Does he fear me, does he know who I am?"

Just learn to differentiate between "This guy is 20/15" and "this guy is a postflop nit" or "this guy tries to win every hand" do you see?

 Any advice on extracting more value out your opponents? I have been struggling to beat SSNL lately. 

You just have to keep putting a guy on a hand preflop, then postflop. Know what he's check calling you down with. Know if you can rep a missed draw. Know if he's thinking about those things. And then, when you "think" you have the best hand, bet it. People don't check raise the river enough, so sometimes if you think you can get 1/2 or 1/3 pot out of second pair, just [censored] do it- unless you think the player is tricky enough to CR the river as a bluff, or just straight raise the river as a bluff, etc.

 AE JONES, thanks for doing this. Can you give examples of some of the archives that helped your game,,include posters names or dates posted if possible 

Anything by Samo is really good, and not just because of his posting style, but because people generally argue with him and it creates good discussion and proves that there can be two amazing players arguing a point where they just do things completely differently... I'll dig up some of my favorites a little bit later and post a few that I still look back on today.

 jonesie,
what kind of hands do you play from the blinds? which types are you calling, reraising pf? i think i might fold to steals too much. thanks. 

Well... basically, I'm thinking about a lot postflop when I think about what to do preflop. That is, if I have KJs in the BB, and the button raises, I will look at what he does preflop. If he likes to steal (that is, his raising range on the button should be like and big cards, any pairs, any two suited) then I will certainly not fold. My options are now two things: I can't get squeezed since I'm in the bb and last to act, so I will sometimes reraise since I'm ahead of his range and my c-bet will smash his reverse implied odds in case he has a marginal hand (say, one that can just call the 3-bet and hit X% of flops). I will also sometimes call, but when I do, it is with intention of usually check calling flops where I flop one pair, check raising flops where I flop a big draw or a twopair+, and check raising a TON of blank flops, often moderately dry ones, but this is compeltely dependent on whether or not my opponent can float my flop check raise or if he's straightforward... So I'll 3-bet more often than not. Same goes with hands like 66, AQo, etc.

 I made a very poorly designed questionaire on 3betting from the blinds.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...=1#Post9321274

Any advice you could give as to what to look for and what to consider when 3betting from the blinds. How different should my range be from SB and BB with regards to hands I should 3bet with? 

It looks like you're thinking about a lot of the right things.

From the BB when a button opens and the sb calls, I squeeze with a very wide range, often there is a lot of dead money there preflop.

With regards to sb-bb hands, You should call less from the sb because if the bb calls, it's another person you're out of postion on, and if the bb is capable of squeezing, you'll often be throwing away money by just calling from the sb.

I 3-bet from them with relatively the same frequency, IF the bb isn't very tricky and aggro and capable of knowing that my sb 3-betting range is light and so is the button open, therefore he can shove a bunch of hands profitably from the bb.

Just make sure that you 3-bet hands that are ahead of ranges, rarely hands like QJo that are easily dominated when called, and mix in hands that are deceptive like 56s. Do those things and get a lot of hands of experience and you will figure out this 3-betting from blinds thing really fast.


were you asked to do this or did you want to be a face? 

I had some free time and I know some people had done these before with similar reputations as me perhaps. Also, I don't mind sharing information and it is well known that I am, in fact, an attention whore. I don't deny these facts, but we all have our crosses to bear.

 What do you do with slightly marginal hand in reraised pots oop?
example: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...;gonew=1#UNREAD 

In that hand, I would definitely be felting after I checked the flop. However, I would bet the flop, try to induce action from 55-JJ since there is such a large difference between the top card on the board and the second card on the board.

Since a 14/10 player jacked up the pot vs a limper though, unless I thought he was uber spewy in 3-bet pots, I would probably not 3-bet even preflop, I would call and play the hand passively or just fold preflop. There is a big different in raising ranges of limpers specifically of a guy who is 20/16 and a guy who is 14/10, important to remember that. I try not to give guys action who I deem nits.

 aejones,

What do you think are some common weaknesses among mid stakes (lower than 10/20) players? How does your style build to exploit them? 

Honestly, everyone has entirely different weaknesses. I really think the biggest weakness is guys just giving up on hands and losing small pots. There are so many spots where people just let me win small pots on the flop and turn that occurs at primarily 2/4 and 3/6; but even a little bit with the guys playing many tables at 5/10. There are a lot of very standard regs, and in general I know people who won't give up small pots without a fight. That is, so often two people completely miss in hold'em, especially short handed. That is why things like the Yeti theorem were developed- no one ever has a [censored] hand.

In short, I think a lot of the standard multi tablers give up small pots too easy; myself included. I like to splash around and float a lot and play a lot of hands in general, because I think playing more hands, whether specifically to build my image or just becuase I have an advantage over a guy in a certain spot, is more profitable to me. Now, playing more hands at 5/10 nowadays is running at like 23/18 or so, whereas at lower stakes I used to win running at 28/20+, so my style definitely has had to change preflop; it's a lot harder to play 57s OOP against someone who is decent.

I feel like I could answer this question better though about weaknesses, if I think of anything I'll write it.


aejones, why do people in MTT forum hate u? 

Well, here's the deal. They can't handle the truth. Basically, I have a lot of poker discussions with my friends, and we've come up with the conclussion that Tournament players just aren't that good. Basically, we have a lot of opinions and I'll share them all here:

First off, I tried playing tournaments in November because I was sick of cash and grinding. I played every tournament for a while, and really didn't do anything special. I think I had about a dozen final tables, mostly on Full Tilt and UB (where I play as "HatesPoker"). Anyways, my biggest score was 14k, but aside from that I had a bunch of like 1500-3000 scores, all supremely dissapointing. I kept getting [censored] at final tables, and running below average in my estimation. Tournaments just kept coming down to coinflips for me.. and I kept losing them. So, I was frustrated. In one month, I improved immensely, I made one decent post in the MTT forum that generated decent discussion, but in general I quit tournaments feeling very frustrated that I couldn't have enough impact on that outcome.

I recognize that multi table tournaments take skill, and a different skill set for sure than cash games. However, you could become a top flight multi table tournament player in month, whereas I think it would take 6 months to achieve similar relative skill in cash games. So why wouldn't you want to be a MTT player? Why wouldn't I? Well, the variance is sick, and the frustration is high. Basically, you can have a sick week and win 5 figures multiple days, and then go two weeks without a score. If you drag that out, it ends up being frustrating and a lot of losing. In general, playing MTTs is less stressful than cash becuase I can sit around for along time clicking buttons and playing as a very high level in early and some mid stages, whereas with cash I might lose a stack if I'm not paying attention.

Well, I've made my feelings about that known.. An MTT person once told me I was down like 40 thousand dollars playing Multis on Stars.. and that very well might be true, I have no idea. It kind of cracks me up if in fact it us true. Well, they all think I'm terrible at poker there because I am pretty arrogant and I've told them these findings about MTTs.

Another reason they don't like me is becuase I've said that a lot of players that are percieved as good as actually bad. I've called out a lot of TV pros or highly ranked online players as garbage... That's the funny thing about poker, sometimes the long run never comes. That is, it is possible to run extremely hot for an extended period of time, and then fall off the face of the earth if you aren't a fantastic poker player. Well, they hated the idea of some mid stakes cash game player saying things that reflected negatively upon "their own." And to their credit, they are somewhat of a tight nit group. Really, I think quite a few of them are probably pretty good at poker; I just happen to call out that some are definitely not, and they hate me for it. I guess that's the gist of it.. there are probably other things as well. 95% of what I say is joking around towards them anyways... I'm glad that they have a chance to make a bunch of money without having to learn the finer points of deepstacked poker. In fact, a good deal of what I say is probably jealously that some of them have made more money than me without the level of hand analysis, per say.

Oh well, I don't lose sleep over it and I'm sure they don't either. Somewhere down the road I'll probably meet some or most of them and we'll sweep all of it under the rug.


aejones,

Would you shoot against me in a 3 point contest for $10k? 

$5k probably. I could likely get backers that would put up a large amount of money for me. I have a friend who plays college basketball that won't play me in HORSE for money. He quit me after I beat him a few times for a few hundred bucks a piece.


those range merging posts are sick good stuff 

thanks, i've spent many college lectures and late night staring at the ceiling thinking about it

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1. Did you personally coin the term SmartLAG?

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As far as I know, yes.

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2. Say I start opening KTs even 56s in EP. What do I have to do to make this profitable (if we include indirect effect on metagame)? Is C-betting most HU flops and then giving up to resistance enough? Do we need to start firing a lot of second barrels / checkraising in the right spots to breakeven? Basically are sick reads/moves a pre-requisite for opening up our EP raising range, or is it still profitable in general to do this with just solid play and no amazing reads.

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C-bet quite a bit at most boards, hit or miss. You can't always give up to resistance, you have to figure out what kind of range he's resisting you with, pick marginal strength hands or draws to float or call down with. You definitely need to figure out spots where to fire second barrels (draw heavy boards where you have some showdown value in my estimation is my favorite spot), also CR'ing the turn with air is TONS of fun, high variance, but profitable. What you need to gather, is that we do NOT have to show a PROFIT with KTs from MP, or 56s. What happens, is that by opening these hands and playing more pots, is that we get MORE profit and action from our HUGE hands, so look at your profit with AA jump since you're not a nit anymore.

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3. Ditto for opening up our 3-bet ranges. Is a strong C-bet then c/f to resistance all the "ammunition" we need to start opening up our range beyond AK/JJ+? Do you take Different typical lines IP and OOP? How often are you firing second barrels, C/R or CRAI as a bluff?

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I'd rather 3-bet from oop because I get the initiative on the flop. IP, I call more because I can float and dick around on different flops. For quite a while, you'll be just fine firing one c-bet in my estimation. However, then you have to start firing second barrels on draw heavy boards and stuff to show more profit, and picking the right spots to do that in. I fire second barrels more often than I CRAI as a bluff, but I do both with some frequency. I tend to know who likes to float me, so I CR the turn with more draws against them. I rarely do things as pure bluffs, but might do something on a J 9 5 4 board with KQ becuase I have overs + gutshot.
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4. With sub-prime hands on the button, what do you do more of?
a) Call with the intention to float / CR often if you miss
b) 3-bet with the intention to C-bet

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Call and float much more from position.
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5. You raised UTG+1 with 22 and are called by button. What is the least scary flop you check/fold versus a 22/18? 40/10?

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I almost never CF flops here with 22. I have way too much FE from raising UTG vs most guys, I will fire two barrels vs the 40/10 on draw heavy boards, and sometimes CR with air vs the TAG if he calls me, depends on a lot of things related to postflop.

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6. Really really juicy party game. A 70/10 drooler station and a couple of 50/10s. Approximately what kind of preflop game you would play at this table (i.e. your rough vpip/pfr)? Do you ever bother 3-betting/floating/CRing the loose players, or do you just tighten up considerably and value bet the crap out of them?

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I tighten up from OOP with hands that make second best hands, like QTo, but I still play a lot of hands preflop, especially from position, and tighten up postflop and value bet them to hell. I take floating out of my game essentially, and just kind of lay back and nutset when the real money goes in.

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7. Zoolander is my favourite comedy by miles. What is your favourite line/s?
(mine: "There was this moment last night when she was sandwiched between the Maori tribesman and the Finnish dwarves, where I thought to myself, 'Wow, I could really spend the rest of my life with that woman'" 

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My favorite comedy is Wedding Crashers, but Zoolander is very funny. I don't really have a specific favorite part, I've probably only seen it 3 times. I have friends that really think I look like Owen Wilson though, so whatever.

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 so, like, have you not had a royal flush or something? i demand a response 

Sorry, but I lost all my hands in my Poker Tracker database becuase my friend messed it up... I only have the results of them. I've had a few, but I can't remember any instances where I won a big pot with one. Sorry.

I think I outdrew someone onetime with one... I think I got all in with KQs on an AsKoTs board to a set and hit the royal, but I don't have that hh.

 You seem to have great, innate, poker instincts. So, how much better of reads do you make in live play vs. online? 

Live, I fear no one. I feel like being able to look at someone is a huge advantage. I have quite a big of experience live, so I'm very comfortable. Also, playing only one hand at a time, I get to think about hands and use a thought process very slowly. I get plenty of time to weed out what may or may not be true, what he wants me to see and what he doesn't want me to see, and if he's acting or not. Live, I routinely check call a few streets with ace high.

 You are playing lower limits like 1/2 where there are plenty of tables... you are datamining the 15 tables for an hour before you sit down... how do you decided what 4 tables to sit at, what are you looking at for info? 

Despite the fact that I play a lot of hands and can take advantage of tight players, I'm still looking for tables that go to more flops, have high VPIPs, since I really want to mix it up with people playing a lot of hands.

 Where do you see yourself 3 years from now?

5? 10? 

That's a good question.

I just declared my major as business. I don't really want to do anything in business necessarily, but I like the competition in most industries, and I could probably manage well or do something with advertising because I'm creative. Thing is, none of that really interests me, right now I'm struggling to put the time into my classes, and everything bores me. I still do okay in school I suppose, but I have to pick it up this semester. The other things I would like to do, including coach at some level of basketball, unfortunately do not pay enough money for me to pursue them. Sure, it'd be great to be a high school teacher and a basketball coach, but I have no idea what kind of income I can rely upon from poker in the next few years, so I can't give a definite answer..

I will take enough shots, hopefully, to have a 6-figure score in a poker tournament in the next 5 years. I definitely want to be married eventually, family life and such is probably the ultimate goal.

 Jones are you making more at 5/10 than you were at 3/6? What kind of sample size are we talking? Oh and sorry if it's been asked, but how many tables do you play? 

Yea, my 5/10 WR over about 40k hands has been better than any other stakes I've played. I have some screen shots posted earlier in this well of my last two months or so, you might want to look them up. With 5/10 on Stars, there usually aren't 8 good tables, but I'm playing anywhere between 6 and 8, I don't have the screen capacity to play more than 8 really, so I couldn't hardcore grind if I wanted to (and I definitely don't want to).

 thanks for the well. how long to plan on playing poker professionally? any timeline? do you have any other plans/ideas for what else you're going to do during the year(s) you play professionally (eg buy a house or making someother sort of investment)? 

Well, I'm in school right now. I just got word that I'm going to be skipping a few classes and going to the WPT Dortmund.. so that should be fun. Basically, the tournament circuit is hugely +EV because there are some baaad players.

I guess I'd really like to make plenty of money though, enough so that if I ever did get a real job, I would be able to do something that I really liked, not something that I needed to make a lot of money with. I just bought a car with cash last summer, for a little under 10k used. So, I'm trying to get everything squared away and paid off, I don't want to have any outstanding debts, that's for sure.

As long as I'm young and have money though, I just want to have a [censored] good time, that's the plan.

 I've been thinking about indentifying when TAGs have a weakish onepair hand that can't stand a river check-raise. What do you think to the two hands I posted <a href="http: