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No reads since this is my 5th hand at the table. Villain isn't fully stacked though fwiw so he's prob not great
Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 4 Players
LeggoPoker.com -
Hand History Converter
BB: $188.60
UTG: $200
Hero (BTN): $199
SB: $34.20
Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $7</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $26</font>, SB folds, BB calls $24, UTG folds
Flop: ($60) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($60) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks
River: ($60) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $50</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $162.60 and is All-In</font>, Hero?
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This is tough because you've thoroughly established your hand as < Ax. A on the flop is also what almost anyone bluffs at, if they're bluffing, or bluff-merging with a low pair. Checking the turn puts your hand face-up.
Many people will bet the turn with a good Ax, but they have to be careful. You might have checked the flop with an even better Ax for deception. But given that you're likely taking one off anyway, betting turn or river doesn't matter much for villain. If he feels he has the best Ax a lot (or better obv), then he will tend to bet turn and river, in order to let strong underpairs make mistakes or worse Ax.
But let's say he gets to the river with his remaining range: weak Ax with or without redraw (A6-AT), low pocket pairs (66-TT), big pocket pairs (JJ-KK). He will probably valuebet the high pocket pairs himself. He will not do something funky with them like c/r because you're unlikely to bet with worse or call with worse. So that leaves hands that can potentially c/r the river: weak Ax, low pocket pairs, bluffs. You are inclined to call river bets from villain with most of your range (esp because your range is stronger pps), but also medium pps because of ae jones theorem. We might have to reconsider that though because you are expected to call the river with most of your range so why would he reverse valuetown himself. The same applies vise versa. Betting the bottom end of your range is ill-advised because he's inclined to call wide; but then again should he thusly? etc.
If we take range-merging and betting because having to call anyway stuff out, then we can expect the action to go bet-call or check-call if you both have high pps.
This makes this a pretty nice balancing situation because he can c/r valuebet and c/r bluff his whole remaining range, forcing you to play incorrectly.
I think anyone capable of doing this as a bluff is also capable of doing this for value.