Re: TheKansas Jayhawks are a win away from bein the #1 team in the cou
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Probably about 95% that WVU beats Pitt and 40% that Mizzou beats Oklahoma. So 3% that a two-loss team makes the championship. It may be +++EV percentage wise, but you're only looking at $2 of EV. Not much of a brag IMO.
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And this is assuming that Kansas with one loss has a 0% shot of playing OSU, should MU and WVU lose. Probably a safe assumption, but I might give Kansas a 10% shot which cuts even further into the odds. Not to mention that all these calculations are post-KU/MU; a game which helped this bet. If Kansas had won (which happens more than 50% according to the pre-game market) this bet would be far worse right now, and clearly EV.
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