[centris]

Rich I don't think you understand waht is going on here:

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that 24.5-25 is a LOT and your logic def. makes sense. That said, would you be shocked if they came out and won by 30? I know I wouldnt, and thats why I will not bet against that happening. That is basically my whole point I guess.

[/ QUOTE ]

When you are betting on sports you need to be more precise than the bold section. I would be shocked if the Pats won by exactly 30 (and not that shocked if they won by 30 or more), but that depends on my definition of shocked is (what percent of the time would it not have ot happen for me to be shocked if it happens). This definately doesn't help anyone decide if they want to bet hte game. You need to be able to say you are confindent the pats win by more than 24 over 53% of the time for this to be a good bet. That is very different than saying you would not be shocked if they won by 30.

[ QUOTE ]
NE Total DVOA 73.7% Ranked #1. DAL is #2 with a 39% DVOA.
Any other questions?

[/ QUOTE ]

Missing the point here too. the question is not whether they have an above average DVOA, but rather are the Pats winning by more than you would expect based on their DVOA. This is obviously really importnat if you want to base future bets on their past results.