[bozlax]

Your thought process is fine right up to the point where you remove any combos that have an ace or ten in them. You've also removed 22-66 for some reason, hands like T8/98/76 (a pair plus), and you don't have any Qx hands except QT, although you say they limp Qxs (Q9 is a possiblity, as is Q8s in any suit that matches the board, etc.).

In short, you seem to be falling victim to one of the Ten Classic Blunders, the most well-known of which is, "Never get involved in a land war in Asia," but only slight less important is this: "Don't reduce your opponent's hand-range to only either those hands that you beat or those hands that beat you."

I haven't done a strict analysis on this particular hand, but the fact that you've narrowed it down to where you're nearly a 2:1 underdog on the river is ridonkulous. If you want to say that you're check/calling a) to induce a bluff or b) because they won't call a bet with missed OCs, etc, is one thing; I don't think it's a RIGHT thing, but at least you're not being weak-tight. Saying, "I'm not going to bet because I think there's only a 30% chance I have the best hand," is horribly weak-tight.