Re: 25NL: Str8 Flush Draw...Right Play?
If this were a raised pot (and you somehow found yourself on this flop), I like it a lot more. In a limped pot, with UTG check-raising flop, I think you're going to see KQ/JcTc/99/AcJc here a lot. If we stove vs this range, it looks like this.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
39,600 games 0.005 secs 7,920,000 games/sec
Board: 9c Kc Qh
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.775% 44.32% 01.45% 17551 576.00 { QcTc }
Hand 1: 54.225% 52.77% 01.45% 20897 576.00 { QQ+, 99, AQs, AcJc, KQs, JTs, AQo, KQo, JTo }
I threw in overpairs and AQ for good measure (This could be a failed limp/reraise) but you're behind this range. After the checkraise (which is pretty big), I think it's safe to assume your FE is non-existent. By shoving, you're risking
$24.50 to win $28.35 so I think the push is marginally -EV if this range is evenly weighted. IMO, though, it's gonna be 2pair/straight/set/better FD more often than AQ/AK, so in theory, I'd fold.
In a game, though, I'd push because I love semi-bluff combodraws. LOL
|