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Some distressed sales are appearing on the MGM Signature property, and a large supply overhang will come online in 2009 through the CityCenter project.
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Umm ... haven't you more or less answered your own question here?
Start of large supply overhang + time to work through said overhang at average rate of sales = earliest you should think about buying.
I suspect DesertCat's estimate is at least in the ballpark.
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I found
this website which does a good job of summarizing the coming strip/near-strip condo supply that is coming on line. I count at least 9 projects, plus other condos further off strip and downtown.
I dont think Desert Cat's price:rent ratio is exactly right, since rental and ownership aren't perfect substitutes for each other due to tax distortions, premiums that people voluntarily pay for ownership, etc.
OTOH, if you believe Vegas strip is primarily an investment/second home market, then maybe Desert Cat's point is more true. 5 years seems too long, I'm thinking more like 12-18 months, but I could be way off base here.