Thread: AA turn spot
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Old 11-24-2007, 01:08 AM
bozlax bozlax is offline
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Default Re: AA turn spot

I've read the thread and can't believe this is getting this much attention. This is the easiest bet/call in the history of forever. How did this forum get so weak-tight overnight?

Yeah, Villan didn't cap preflop and did cap the flop. If he puts Hero on the same range Hero's putting him on, he's making that play with QQ, and probably JJ/TT, too, given his stats. He might pull this with AQs/AJs, granted only in spades or hearts, but given that there are only 3 combos of 88 to worry about (I don't really think 77 is in his range from UTG+2 pf, unless the table is uber-tight) including those 4 hands alone puts you ahead of his range. Give a 10% chance that Villan has some read on JJack that he thinks he can exploit (zomg, is such a thing possible? fold the turn after flop aggression much, JJack?) (just because Hero HAS AA doesn't mean Villan is PUTTING him on AA), and it's even more likely.

HERO IS WAY AHEAD OF VILLAN'S RANGE AND GIVEN THAT VILLAN CAPPED BEFORE MP1 FOLDED, GETTING THAT FOLD MAY HAVE BEEN PART OF HIS MOTIVATION -AND- HE'S KNOWN AGGRESSIVE.

The good news for Hero is that Villan isn't folding anything just because you bet, but you don't want to give a freebie to a flush draw. The interesting question is how best to play the river; given how aggressive he is, I think it's an easy check-call if he smooth-calls the turn, but if he raises the turn...meh, I think check-call is probably best in that instance, too. So, bet/call-check/call is the line.
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