Re: What % of the time are we beat here?
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Bet more on turn, like .85 and river is a call. I dont think hes going to call a shove with a lone jack or queen. We are getting almost 6:1 so there is no folding here. Whether you "know" he isnt bluffing or not means nothing really. He could be value betting K9/KT often enough to dictate calling. He could think QJ is good now, who knows, but the odds are too good.
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In my experience, even at 2NL, almost all villains are cautious with trips on this board.
I knew that the advice from everyone would be that this is an obvious call.
That is why I changed the question, to "How often are we good?"
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