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Old 11-24-2007, 12:43 AM
mugatu668 mugatu668 is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,260
Default What % of the time are we beat here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

BB ($3.83)
UTG ($4.83)
MP ($2.07)
CO ($2.55)
Hero ($2.84)
SB ($0.98)

Preflop: Hero is Button with , .
UTG calls $0.02, MP calls $0.02, CO calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.12</font>, 2 folds</font>, UTG calls $0.10, MP calls $0.10, CO folds.

Flop: ($0.41) , , [color=#0000FF](3 players)</font>
UTG checks, MP checks, Hero bets $0.31</font>, UTG calls $0.31, MP folds.

Turn: ($1.03) (2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.66</font>, UTG calls $0.66.

River: ($2.35) (2 players)</font>
Villain bets $.55

Let's go over the hand:
PF call: Shows a marginal hand that probably hopes to improve. All pp's, suited aces, suited connectors, possibly connectors
Flop call: After the strength shown PF he is definitely going to be raising two pair, the calling either shows that he has a weak king, a jack, or is drawing.
Turn call Most villains here now toss their PP's + jacks, and almost all of them will raise a king. This leaves us with draws.
River bet Clearly a valuebet. Villain knows we are not folding but is also afraid we might check behind because of the scary river. River card completes almost all draws.

My answer: I think at these stakes, hero is beat somewhere between 90 and 100% of the time.

Question: It seems to me like, with these odds, folding is out of the question. But, my question is, can an argument be made for folding here?