[friedace]

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Against a 75BB stack and an SPR < 5, I stick it in on the flop all day, unless I have a read that the villain is really passive/nitty.

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Yeah, it's kind of borderline here but I think this is one of those occasions where I discount the good SPR for my AA.

Here's why:
1.) Four players saw the flop.
2.) Villain is not likely on a draw. There is only one draw and it's unlikey 3,5.
3.) Villain is unkown. I find it is better to give unkowns more credit at NL400 than I do at lower levels. Anyone disagree?
4.) Pushing his flop raise allows him to play perfectly against me.
5.) I've already raised UTG and bet the flop into three players. I'm saying I have a high pair and he's not backing down.

All and all I think check/call is a more profitable line if the turn and river blank.

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OP, I think your reasoning is very good here. I don't play anywhere close to this high, but this is my thinking. Our SPR against the villain is a bit over 3 (290/90ish) which is enough to commit with an overpair HU, but it was a multiway pot on a pretty dry board. Because of this, we have to really lower our target SPR since the chance of being beaten increases when it's multiway. His PF call was given him great stack odds to setmine (20:1) and if I was villain, any pocket pair is in my range. As you stated, if we get it in on this flop, we are letting him play perfectly by letting him get away from his AJ/KJ if he's half decent, and letting him stack us /w a pp when getting 20:1 stack odds (plus other callers' dead money) preflop. .

I hate minraises like this. But, I think this can definitely be a probe raise with AJ, in addition to sets. Since we've ruled our reraising, I like calling on the flop and re-evaluating on teh turn.

On the turn, the pot is now $250 and he has about $200 left. Against a range of QQ/JJ/44/22/AJs/KJs that would bet the turn, we have 51.316%. Add 1010 to his range, and we have 61.9% equity.

With the drop of an ugly J on the turn, against a range of QQ/JJ/44/22/AJs/KJs, we have 42.424% equity. If he pushes, we're getting 250:200, or 2.25:1, so we should call.

So, since it's profitable to call with in when a jack, one of the worst turn cards hits, I don't really think it matters what happens on the turn, because we're committed regardless since at worst, we're about even money. Are there any suggestions here? Maybe bet half the pot?

Against a full stack, I'm not entirely sure what is the best turn line. I think it would depend on your read or his stats incl. AF obvi, but check raising probably wouldn't be bad. That way, we can keep the pot small if he checks behind, which will make our river value bet look like a bluff. If he bets, we can CR push anything and he'll likely call with his top pair because he's committed.

friedace