Re: 50NL fold Aces here? (ugh I hate saying that!!)
Here's the absolute worst scenario imo:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
Board: 8c 4d 6s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.578% 31.84% 00.74% 7249 169.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 67.422% 66.68% 00.74% 15183 169.00 { QQ, 88, 66, 44, 86s, 75s, 64s }
(I've only chose this range to demonstrate the breakeven point. Imo villain's range has much more overcard combos in it.)
I should add that I don't see such a tight villain call with suited one gappers. He might have position on you but there are still people left to act behind him preflop. Maybe a suited connector but no way a suited one gapper or trash like 84o, 64o, 57o.
Also there are 6 overpair possibilities on this board and if I only count 1 of them you have the odds. There are 9 combos for the set as always which are totally possible. You need 33% so you need like 5 combos of overcards. 5 combos of the possible 36 overpair combos. As I said you only need less than one overpair and you're good to go.
On a sidenote:
If you think that he only calls with hands that beat you why would you reraise here? More importantly: why whould you reraise and put more than 30% of your stack in the pot then fold?
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