[MichaelBolton777]

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ikes, villain has AK and shoves the river for like 300 big blinds. what's he expecting a call from ... A8? clearly there's some point at which you fold this (even getting 2.5:1). 500 big blinds? 1000 big blinds? hero has a set, but hero doesn't have the nuts.

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who said that it was a good push?

2 combos AA
2 combos KK
2 combos 44
9 combos AK

We lose to AA, KK... beat 44. If he plays AK this way 20% of the time... its a call. i rest my case.

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Actually, there are 3 hand combos of AA, KK, and 44, so given your example, he need to have AK 3 of 9 times.

But really, on the river, you're getting better than 2 to 1 to call, so even if he only has a set, it's a call here.

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again, i think this decision should be made once 3 bet on turn, so we are not getting 2 to 1ish, but 3 to 7ish, instead (i guess once you get to riv, you have to use 2 to 1, making the decision a lot harder). Now we have to be right around 40% of the time. Weighting his hand to some degree away from AK, and slightly away from 44 (assuming he might not raise this utg as a 12% pfr), it seems like a clear fold to me at 1/2 against this player...where am i wrong??