Re: Maths Question.
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when he calls we win -21$, when he folds we win 14$
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This is incorrect. When he folds we make 18, our original raise (4), plus the amount he 3-bet (14). We also need to account for the blinds, but ignoring that for now a 0EV push requires
p = [96 - E(200)] / [18 + 96 - E(200)]
where:
p = fold equity required
E = pot equity versus villain's calling range
So, if he's calling with TT+, our equity is about 38% as you mentioned. Plugging this in for E we get:
p = [96 - (.38)(200)] / [18 + 96 - (.38)(200)]
p = .526
So we need him to fold a little over half the time. This means he needs to be 3-betting more than twice as many hand combos as he's calling with.
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